bayesRatings

Pacers at Nets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final IND 115 – BKN 110
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND18353131115
BKN31332620110
Team box
IND·BKN
45-92
field goals
38-85
15-42
3-pointers
14-33
10-14
free throws
20-26
42
rebounds
47
29
assists
25
12
turnovers
17
58
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jarace WalkerIND322353
Nolan TraoreBKN322028
Day'Ron SharpeBKN3119125
Micah PotterIND2719121
Ziaire WilliamsBKN281951
Ethan ThompsonIND271553

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +18
IND +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 18 · IND 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 58%, BKN 42% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
IND by 1.5
Expected score
IND 111.3 – 109.8 BKN
Expected total
221.2
PacersThe matchupNets
−138Our fair odds+138
111.3Expected points109.8
−0.26Power rating−0.80
111.1Points / game107.6
118.8Allowed / game114.9
44.9FG%44.6
34.93P%34.3
42.7Rebounds / game40.6
14−40Season record15−37
4−6Last 103−7
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Obi ToppinOutChaney Johnson · E.J. Liddell
Michael Porter Jr. · Tyson Etienne

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · BKN chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−13858%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+13842%————
SpreadIND by 1.5
INDIndiana Pacers−1.5our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.2
Over221.2our total————
Under221.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.5 expected
Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%
← IND wins byBKN wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more44%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more30%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.2 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GKobe Brownstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GKam Jonesstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FZiaire Williamsstarted
CDay'Ron Sharpestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·BKN
Feb 10 at NY
last game
Feb 9 vs CHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · low back; sorenessOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back; injury managementOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDPascal Siakam · left hamstring; sorenessOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDJarace Walker · n/a; illnessQuestionable
INDMicah Potter · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
and 3 more
Brooklyn Nets
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · right knee; tendinitisOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNNic Claxton · right hip; sorenessDoubtful
BKNNoah Clowney · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
IND·BKN
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
111.1
points / game
107.6
118.8
points allowed / game
114.9
14−40
season record
15−37
10−18
home record
8−18
4−22
away record
7−19
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
44.9
FG%
44.6
34.9
3P%
34.3
42.7
rebounds / game
40.6
26.0
assists / game
25.4
14.2
turnovers / game
15.6
45.2
points in paint / game
43.5

Rating Trend

IND · BKN · 105 days
Indiana PacersBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 4−6
Nov 5, 2025at INDBKN 112 − 103
Mar 22, 2025at INDIND 108 − 103
Mar 20, 2025at INDIND 105 − 99
Jan 6, 2025at BKNIND 113 − 99
Dec 4, 2024at BKNBKN 99 − 90
Apr 3, 2024at BKNBKN 115 − 111
Apr 1, 2024at INDIND 133 − 111
Mar 16, 2024at INDIND 121 − 100
Dec 10, 2022at INDBKN 136 − 133
Nov 25, 2022at INDIND 128 − 117

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 10at NY137 − 134W
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L

BKN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Feb 9vs CHI123 − 115W
Feb 7vs WSH127 − 113W
Feb 5at ORL98 − 118L
Feb 3vs LAL109 − 125L
Feb 1at DET77 − 130L
Jan 30at UTAH109 − 99W
Jan 29at DEN103 − 107L
Jan 27at PHX102 − 106L
Jan 25at LAC89 − 126L
Jan 23vs BOS126 − 130L