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Pacers at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Feb 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final IND 99 – MIL 105
← NBA / Feb 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND2918183499
MIL23312922105
Team box
IND·MIL
35-79
field goals
44-95
12-43
3-pointers
13-43
17-21
free throws
4-6
37
rebounds
48
26
assists
26
9
turnovers
12
38
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL342378
Andrew NembhardIND372228
Ryan RollinsMIL342244
Bobby PortisMIL262161
Pascal SiakamIND331964
Jarace WalkerIND301591

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +20
IND +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 20 · IND 8lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 44%, MIL 56% · Updated Feb 6

Expected margin
MIL by 2.5
Expected score
MIL 115.2 – 112.7 IND
Expected total
227.9
PacersThe matchupBucks
+126Our fair odds−126
112.7Expected points115.2
−0.21Power rating−0.20
110.9Points / game112.1
118.7Allowed / game116.1
44.8FG%48.2
34.93P%39.5
42.8Rebounds / game40.9
13−38Season record20−29
4−6Last 103−7
Ethan Thompson · Ivica Zubac
Kobe Brown · Obi Toppin
Taelon PeterOut (5 each)Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kyle Kuzma · Nigel Hayes-Davis
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+12644%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12656%————
SpreadMIL by 2.5
INDIndiana Pacers+2.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.5 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more47%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more32%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIL
Feb 3 vs UTAH
last game
Feb 4 vs NO
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 6, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayOut
INDIvica Zubac · not with teamOut
INDKobe Brown · not with teamOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDMicah Potter · left hip; contusionQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILKyle Kuzma · left calf; sorenessOut
MILNigel Hayes-Davis · not with teamOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILBobby Portis · right hip; contusionQuestionable
MILGary Harris · left hamstring; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
IND·MIL
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
110.9
points / game
112.1
118.7
points allowed / game
116.1
13−38
season record
20−29
10−18
home record
11−12
3−20
away record
9−17
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
3−7
44.8
FG%
48.2
34.9
3P%
39.5
42.8
rebounds / game
40.9
25.9
assists / game
26.4
14.3
turnovers / game
14.5
45.3
points in paint / game
44.6

Rating Trend

IND · MIL · 100 days
Indiana PacersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Dec 23, 2025at INDMIL 111 − 94
Nov 3, 2025at INDMIL 117 − 115
Apr 29, 2025at INDIND 119 − 118post
Apr 27, 2025at MILIND 129 − 103post
Apr 25, 2025at MILMIL 117 − 101post
Apr 22, 2025at INDIND 123 − 115post
Apr 19, 2025at INDIND 117 − 98post
Mar 15, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 119
Mar 11, 2025at INDIND 115 − 114
Dec 31, 2024at INDMIL 120 − 112

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L
Jan 16vs NO127 − 119W

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L