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Pelicans at Bucks

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final NO 137 – MIL 141
← NBA / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
NO343634249137
MIL3033362913141
Team box
NO·MIL
45-94
field goals
56-92
24-46
3-pointers
21-47
23-29
free throws
8-10
38
rebounds
43
32
assists
36
8
turnovers
15
38
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO404466
Ryan RollinsMIL402744
Saddiq BeyNO352232
Zion WilliamsonNO382058
AJ GreenMIL362032
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL291869

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +11
NO +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: MIL 11 · NO 9lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 32%, MIL 68% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
MIL by 6.3
Expected score
MIL 117.9 – 111.6 NO
Expected total
229.5
PelicansThe matchupBucks
+208Our fair odds−208
111.6Expected points117.9
−0.72Power rating−0.20
114.0Points / game111.5
120.6Allowed / game115.6
45.9FG%47.9
33.83P%39.4
43.8Rebounds / game40.8
13−39Season record19−29
4−6Last 102−8
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey AlexanderOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Bobby Portis
Gary Harris · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MIL chance
Our model fair32.5%67.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20832%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−20868%————
SpreadMIL by 6.3
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 6.3 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more57%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more42%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAmir Coffeystarted
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MIL
Feb 2 at CHA
last game
Feb 3 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 4, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILBobby Portis · right hip; contusionOut
MILGary Harris · left hamstring; strainOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILCole Anthony · left ankle; sprainProbable
MILMyles Turner · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
NO·MIL
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
114.0
points / game
111.5
120.6
points allowed / game
115.6
13−39
season record
19−29
8−19
home record
10−12
5−20
away record
9−17
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
45.9
FG%
47.9
33.8
3P%
39.4
43.8
rebounds / game
40.8
24.7
assists / game
26.2
14.2
turnovers / game
14.5
57.5
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

NO · MIL · 98 days
New Orleans PelicansMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 6−2
Apr 10, 2025at MILMIL 136 − 111
Apr 6, 2025at NOMIL 111 − 107
Mar 28, 2024at NONO 107 − 100
Jan 27, 2024at MILMIL 141 − 117
Jan 29, 2023at MILMIL 135 − 110
Dec 19, 2022at NOMIL 128 − 119
Jan 1, 2022at MILMIL 136 − 113
Dec 17, 2021at NONO 116 − 112

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Feb 2at CHA95 − 102L
Jan 31at PHI114 − 124L
Jan 30vs MEM114 − 106W
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L
Jan 25at SA104 − 95W
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W
Jan 21vs DET104 − 112L
Jan 18at HOU110 − 119L
Jan 16at IND119 − 127L
Jan 14vs BKN116 − 113W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L