bayesRatings

Bulls at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final CHI 115 – MIL 131
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI24283726115
MIL39382826131
Team box
CHI·MIL
40-91
field goals
50-97
19-51
3-pointers
23-38
16-23
free throws
8-15
43
rebounds
51
26
assists
33
10
turnovers
14
40
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kyle KuzmaMIL3131106
Matas BuzelisCHI362221
Ryan RollinsMIL3521710
Coby WhiteCHI3021103
Ayo DosunmuCHI281748
Patrick WilliamsCHI271753

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +26
CHI +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 26 · CHI 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 45%, MIL 55% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 117.8 – 116.4 CHI
Expected total
234.2
BullsThe matchupBucks
+122Our fair odds−122
116.4Expected points117.8
−0.17Power rating−0.20
117.2Points / game111.1
119.9Allowed / game115.6
47.3FG%47.9
36.73P%38.9
45.3Rebounds / game40.6
24−26Season record18−29
5−5Last 102−8
Dario Saric · Josh Giddey
Kevin Huerter · Nikola Vucevic
Noa EssengueOut (5 each)Alex Antetokounmpo · Gary Harris
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MIL chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+12245%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12255%————
SpreadMIL by 1.3
CHIChicago Bulls+1.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.2
Over234.2our total————
Under234.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 1.3 expected
Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%
← CHI wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more44%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more30%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.2 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAmir Coffeystarted
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MIL
Feb 1 at MIA
last game
Feb 1 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIDario Saric · not with teamOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; strainOut
CHIKevin Huerter · not with teamOut
CHINikola Vucevic · not with teamOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITre Jones · left hamstring; strainOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; injury managementQuestionable
CHIJulian Phillips · right wrist; sprainQuestionable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGary Harris · left hamstring; strainOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right oblique muscle; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILBobby Portis · right hip; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
CHI·MIL
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
117.2
points / game
111.1
119.9
points allowed / game
115.6
24−26
season record
18−29
15−11
home record
9−12
9−15
away record
9−17
L1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
47.3
FG%
47.9
36.7
3P%
38.9
45.3
rebounds / game
40.6
29.6
assists / game
26.1
14.2
turnovers / game
14.5
53.4
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

CHI · MIL · 97 days
Chicago BullsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at CHIMIL 112 − 103
Nov 7, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 110
Dec 28, 2024at CHICHI 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2024at CHIMIL 112 − 91
Nov 20, 2024at MILMIL 122 − 106
Oct 25, 2024at MILCHI 133 − 122
Mar 1, 2024at CHIMIL 113 − 97
Dec 11, 2023at MILMIL 133 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at CHICHI 120 − 113
Nov 13, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 109

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 1at MIA91 − 134L
Jan 31at MIA125 − 118W
Jan 29vs MIA113 − 116L
Jan 28at IND110 − 113L
Jan 26vs LAL118 − 129L
Jan 24vs BOS114 − 111W
Jan 22at MIN120 − 115W
Jan 20vs LAC138 − 110W
Jan 18vs BKN124 − 102W
Jan 16at BKN109 − 112L

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W
Jan 15at SA101 − 119L
Jan 13vs MIN106 − 139L
Jan 11at DEN104 − 108L
Jan 9at LAL105 − 101W