bayesRatings

Pacers at Knicks

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 10 · 6:30 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final IND 137 – NY 134
← NBA / Feb 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
IND3231313013137
NY3336243110134
Team box
IND·NY
50-97
field goals
50-100
18-45
3-pointers
14-46
19-26
free throws
20-27
43
rebounds
46
30
assists
33
11
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY424058
Pascal SiakamIND373064
Andrew NembhardIND3724410
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3222143
Mikal BridgesNY432263
Quenton JacksonIND281963

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +9
IND +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: NY 8 · IND 9lead changes: 39

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 28%, NY 72% · Updated Feb 10

Expected margin
NY by 9.2
Expected score
NY 117.8 – 108.6 IND
Expected total
226.3
PacersThe matchupKnicks
+253Our fair odds−253
108.6Expected points117.8
−0.26Power rating+0.47
110.6Points / game117.5
118.5Allowed / game111.8
44.8FG%47.0
34.83P%37.9
42.7Rebounds / game46.5
13−40Season record35−19
3−7Last 109−1
Johnny Furphy · Obi Toppin
Tyrese HaliburtonOutMiles McBride · Mitchell Robinson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · NY chance
Our model fair28.3%71.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+25328%————
NYNew York Knicks−25372%————
SpreadNY by 9.2
INDIndiana Pacers+9.2our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 9.2 expected
Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 22 points: 2%New York Knicks by 23 points: 2%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 50 points: <1%New York Knicks by 51 points: <1%
← IND wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more64%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more49%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CMicah Potterstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GLandry Shametstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·NY
Feb 8 at TOR
last game
Feb 8 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 10, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDJarace Walker · n/a; illnessDoubtful
INDAaron Nesmith · left hand; strainQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
INDMicah Potter · left hip; contusionQuestionable
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessQuestionable
and 1 more
New York Knicks
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscleOut
NYMitchell Robinson · surgery left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYOG Anunoby · right toe; toenail avulsionQuestionable
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
IND·NY
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
110.6
points / game
117.5
118.5
points allowed / game
111.8
13−40
season record
35−19
10−18
home record
22−6
3−22
away record
13−13
L4
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
9−1
44.8
FG%
47.0
34.8
3P%
37.9
42.7
rebounds / game
46.5
25.9
assists / game
26.8
14.3
turnovers / game
13.6
45.2
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

IND · NY · 104 days
Indiana PacersNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 5−5
Dec 18, 2025at INDNY 114 − 113
May 31, 2025at INDIND 125 − 108post
May 29, 2025at NYNY 111 − 94post
May 27, 2025at INDIND 130 − 121post
May 25, 2025at INDNY 106 − 100post
May 23, 2025at NYIND 114 − 109post
May 21, 2025at NYIND 138 − 135post
Feb 11, 2025at INDNY 128 − 115
Nov 10, 2024at INDIND 132 − 121
Oct 25, 2024at NYNY 123 − 98

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Feb 8at TOR104 − 122L
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L

NY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Feb 8at BOS111 − 89W
Feb 6at DET80 − 118L
Feb 4vs DEN134 − 127W
Feb 3at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 1vs LAL112 − 100W
Jan 30vs POR127 − 97W
Jan 28at TOR119 − 92W
Jan 27vs SAC103 − 87W
Jan 24at PHI112 − 109W
Jan 21vs BKN120 − 66W