bayesRatings

Pacers at Raptors

NBA · Sunday, Feb 8 · 2:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final IND 104 – TOR 122
← NBA / Feb 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND20282630104
TOR21254432122
Team box
IND·TOR
40-89
field goals
45-95
12-33
3-pointers
11-30
12-14
free throws
21-30
40
rebounds
54
26
assists
29
19
turnovers
13
46
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR3325146
RJ BarrettTOR322085
Pascal SiakamIND241842
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR221741
Jay HuffIND301572
Immanuel QuickleyTOR281346

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +22
IND +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 22 · IND 6lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 41%, TOR 59% · Updated Feb 8

Expected margin
TOR by 3.9
Expected score
TOR 115.1 – 111.2 IND
Expected total
226.3
PacersThe matchupRaptors
+145Our fair odds−145
111.2Expected points115.1
−0.21Power rating−0.06
110.7Points / game114.0
118.4Allowed / game112.4
44.8FG%47.4
34.83P%34.4
42.7Rebounds / game42.9
13−39Season record31−22
3−7Last 106−4
Ethan Thompson · Ivica Zubac
Kobe Brown · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutChris Paul · Chucky Hepburn
Jakob Poeltl

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · TOR chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14541%————
TORToronto Raptors−14559%————
SpreadTOR by 3.9
INDIndiana Pacers+3.9our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 3.9 expected
Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%
← IND wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more51%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more36%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·TOR
Feb 6 at MIL
last game
Feb 5 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 8, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayOut
INDIvica Zubac · fracture not with teamOut
INDKobe Brown · not with teamOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stressOut
INDQuenton Jackson · g league - two-wayOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Toronto Raptors
TORChris Paul · not with teamOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · return to competition reconditioningOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
IND·TOR
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
110.7
points / game
114.0
118.4
points allowed / game
112.4
13−39
season record
31−22
10−18
home record
15−12
3−21
away record
16−10
L3
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
44.8
FG%
47.4
34.8
3P%
34.4
42.7
rebounds / game
42.9
25.9
assists / game
29.5
14.2
turnovers / game
14.0
45.2
points in paint / game
52.2

Rating Trend

IND · TOR · 102 days
Indiana PacersToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Jan 14at INDTOR 115 − 101
Nov 26, 2025at TORTOR 97 − 95
Nov 15, 2025at INDTOR 129 − 111
Feb 26, 2025at INDIND 111 − 91
Dec 3, 2024at TORTOR 122 − 111
Nov 18, 2024at TORTOR 130 − 119
Apr 9, 2024at TORIND 140 − 123
Feb 26, 2024at INDTOR 130 − 122
Feb 14, 2024at TORIND 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at INDTOR 132 − 131

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Feb 6at MIL99 − 105L
Feb 3vs UTAH122 − 131L
Feb 2vs HOU114 − 118L
Jan 31vs ATL129 − 124W
Jan 28vs CHI113 − 110W
Jan 26at ATL116 − 132L
Jan 23at OKC117 − 114W
Jan 21at BOS104 − 119L
Jan 19at PHI104 − 113L
Jan 17at DET78 − 121L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L
Jan 28vs NY92 − 119L
Jan 25at OKC103 − 101W
Jan 23at POR110 − 98W
Jan 21at SAC122 − 109W
Jan 20at GS145 − 127W
Jan 18at LAL93 − 110L