bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Raptors

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final MIN 128 – TOR 126
← NBA / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN32273534128
TOR35373222126
Team box
MIN·TOR
49-97
field goals
47-89
16-39
3-pointers
15-31
14-25
free throws
17-24
46
rebounds
41
26
assists
31
10
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN383085
Brandon IngramTOR352564
Immanuel QuickleyTOR342358
Scottie BarnesTOR3722108
Bones HylandMIN262073
Jaden McDanielsMIN401914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +18
MIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 18 · MIN 5lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 58%, TOR 42% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
MIN by 3.2
Expected score
MIN 114.5 – 111.4 TOR
Expected total
225.9
TimberwolvesThe matchupRaptors
−140Our fair odds+140
114.5Expected points111.4
+0.51Power rating−0.06
119.5Points / game113.6
114.5Allowed / game112.2
48.3FG%47.1
37.83P%34.0
44.9Rebounds / game43.1
31−20Season record30−21
4−6Last 106−4
Enrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.OutA.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob Poeltl
Ochai Agbaji

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14058%————
TORToronto Raptors+14042%————
SpreadMIN by 3.2
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.2our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.2 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byTOR wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more49%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more34%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TOR
Feb 2 at MEM
last game
Feb 1 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 4, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
MINAnthony Edwards · left elbow; sorenessQuestionable
MINJulius Randle · left thumb; sorenessQuestionable
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower; strainOut
TOROchai Agbaji · not with teamOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MIN·TOR
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
119.5
points / game
113.6
114.5
points allowed / game
112.2
31−20
season record
30−21
17−8
home record
14−11
14−12
away record
16−10
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
47.1
37.8
3P%
34.0
44.9
rebounds / game
43.1
26.6
assists / game
29.3
14.5
turnovers / game
14.0
49.7
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

MIN · TOR · 98 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 5−3
Nov 21, 2024at TORTOR 110 − 105
Oct 26, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 101
Apr 3, 2024at MINMIN 133 − 85
Oct 25, 2023at TORTOR 97 − 94
Mar 18, 2023at TORTOR 122 − 107
Jan 19, 2023at MINMIN 128 − 126
Mar 30, 2022at TORTOR 125 − 102
Feb 16, 2022at MINTOR 103 − 91

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 2at MEM128 − 137L
Jan 31at MEM131 − 114W
Jan 29vs OKC123 − 111W
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L
Jan 20at UTAH122 − 127L
Jan 17at SA123 − 126L
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L
Jan 28vs NY92 − 119L
Jan 25at OKC103 − 101W
Jan 23at POR110 − 98W
Jan 21at SAC122 − 109W
Jan 20at GS145 − 127W
Jan 18at LAL93 − 110L
Jan 16vs LAC117 − 121L
Jan 14at IND115 − 101W