bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Grizzlies

NBA · Saturday, Jan 31 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final MIN 131 – MEM 114
← NBA / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN30283934131
MEM21283035114
Team box
MIN·MEM
47-89
field goals
44-90
18-37
3-pointers
10-37
19-24
free throws
16-24
45
rebounds
43
28
assists
29
15
turnovers
15
40
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN393323
Julius RandleMIN352777
Naz ReidMIN312095
Ty JeromeMEM202016
Jaden McDanielsMIN342042
GG JacksonMEM281945

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +22
MIN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 5 · MIN 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 58%, MEM 42% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
MIN by 3.1
Expected score
MIN 117.5 – 114.4 MEM
Expected total
231.8
TimberwolvesThe matchupGrizzlies
−136Our fair odds+136
117.5Expected points114.4
+0.47Power rating−0.06
119.0Points / game114.6
114.1Allowed / game116.3
48.1FG%45.4
37.63P%34.5
45.0Rebounds / game46.0
30−19Season record18−28
5−5Last 102−8
Enrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.OutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Santi Aldama · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · MEM chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13658%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+13642%————
SpreadMIN by 3.1
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−3.1our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.8
Over231.8our total————
Under231.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 3.1 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byMEM wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more48%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more34%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.8 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GVince Williams Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·MEM
Jan 29 vs OKC
last game
Jan 30 at NO
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 31, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJaren Jackson Jr. · left quad; contusionDoubtful
MEMJohn Konchar · anterior triangle; contusionDoubtful
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
MIN·MEM
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
119.0
points / game
114.6
114.1
points allowed / game
116.3
30−19
season record
18−28
17−8
home record
10−14
13−11
away record
8−14
W3
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
48.1
FG%
45.4
37.6
3P%
34.5
45.0
rebounds / game
46.0
26.6
assists / game
28.9
14.6
turnovers / game
15.5
49.8
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

MIN · MEM · 94 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 4−6
Dec 17, 2025at MINMEM 116 − 110
Apr 10, 2025at MEMMIN 141 − 125
Jan 20, 2025at MEMMEM 108 − 106
Jan 11, 2025at MINMEM 127 − 125
Feb 28, 2024at MINMIN 110 − 101
Jan 18, 2024at MINMIN 118 − 103
Dec 8, 2023at MEMMIN 127 − 103
Nov 26, 2023at MEMMIN 119 − 97
Feb 10, 2023at MEMMEM 128 − 107
Jan 27, 2023at MINMIN 111 − 100

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jan 29vs OKC123 − 111W
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L
Jan 20at UTAH122 − 127L
Jan 17at SA123 − 126L
Jan 16at HOU105 − 110L
Jan 13at MIL139 − 106W
Jan 11vs SA104 − 103W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Jan 30at NO106 − 114L
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L