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Spurs at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Feb 5 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final SA 135 – DAL 123
← NBA / Feb 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA38362536135
DAL35283327123
Team box
SA·DAL
48-95
field goals
47-97
17-41
3-pointers
12-31
22-25
free throws
17-20
50
rebounds
41
34
assists
23
14
turnovers
9
60
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL393264
Naji MarshallDAL393263
Victor WembanyamaSA3429116
Max ChristieDAL382034
Harrison BarnesSA341913
Stephon CastleSA221876

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +13
SA +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 4 · SA 13lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 55%, DAL 45% · Updated Feb 5

Expected margin
SA by 1.8
Expected score
SA 116.2 – 114.3 DAL
Expected total
230.5
SpursThe matchupMavericks
−124Our fair odds+124
116.2Expected points114.3
+0.22Power rating−0.23
116.8Points / game113.8
112.0Allowed / game116.5
47.4FG%47.2
34.63P%33.8
46.4Rebounds / game45.2
34−17Season record19−31
7−3Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Jeremy Sochan
Lindy Waters III · Luke KornetOutAnthony Davis · D'Angelo Russell
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Jaden Hardy

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair55.4%44.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−12455%————
DALDallas Mavericks+12445%————
SpreadSA by 1.8
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.8our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.5
Over230.5our total————
Under230.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.8 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byDAL wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more45%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more31%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·DAL
Feb 4 vs OKC
last game
Feb 3 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 5, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; strainOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SALuke Kornet · left adductor; tightness/left ankle sorenessOut
SADylan Harper · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
SAKelly Olynyk · left foot; sprainQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · not with teamOut
DALD'Angelo Russell · not with teamOut
DALDante Exum · not with teamOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALJaden Hardy · not with teamOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALP.J. Washington · concussion protocolOut
DALBrandon Williams · right lower leg; contusionQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
SA·DAL
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
116.8
points / game
113.8
112.0
points allowed / game
116.5
34−17
season record
19−31
18−6
home record
14−15
16−11
away record
5−16
W2
streak
L5
7−3
last 10
4−6
47.4
FG%
47.2
34.6
3P%
33.8
46.4
rebounds / game
45.2
26.0
assists / game
25.1
13.6
turnovers / game
14.9
49.8
points in paint / game
53.6

Rating Trend

SA · DAL · 99 days
San Antonio SpursDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 7−3
Oct 22, 2025at DALSA 125 − 92
Mar 12, 2025at SASA 126 − 116
Mar 10, 2025at SADAL 133 − 129
Nov 16, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 93
Oct 24, 2024at DALDAL 120 − 109
Mar 19, 2024at SADAL 113 − 107
Feb 14, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at DALDAL 144 − 119
Oct 25, 2023at SADAL 126 − 119
Apr 9, 2023at DALSA 138 − 117

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W
Jan 15vs MIL119 − 101W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W
Jan 14vs DEN109 − 118L