bayesRatings

Mavericks at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Feb 7 · 5:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final DAL 125 – SA 138
← NBA / Feb 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL32352434125
SA39423324138
Team box
DAL·SA
46-105
field goals
55-99
15-37
3-pointers
14-35
18-24
free throws
14-20
41
rebounds
52
35
assists
34
7
turnovers
18
50
points in paint
74
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephon CastleSA32401212
Klay ThompsonDAL191912
Brandon WilliamsDAL241834
Devin VassellSA301746
Max ChristieDAL271733
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL2416122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +28
DAL +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 28 · DAL 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 34%, SA 66% · Updated Feb 7

Expected margin
SA by 5.5
Expected score
SA 117.6 – 112.1 DAL
Expected total
229.7
MavericksThe matchupSpurs
+193Our fair odds−193
112.1Expected points117.6
−0.23Power rating+0.22
114.0Points / game117.2
116.8Allowed / game112.2
47.2FG%47.4
33.93P%34.7
45.1Rebounds / game46.4
19−32Season record35−17
4−6Last 107−3
Dereck Lively II · Khris Middleton
Kyrie Irving · Miles Kelly
Moussa CisseOutDavid Jones Garcia · Lindy Waters III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · SA chance
Our model fair34.1%65.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+19334%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−19366%————
SpreadSA by 5.5
DALDallas Mavericks+5.5our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 5.5 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%
← DAL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more55%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more40%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·SA
Feb 5 vs SA
last game
Feb 5 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 7, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKhris Middleton · trade pendingOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SADe'Aaron Fox · bilateral mid thoratic;Questionable
SAHarrison Ingram · soreness g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAJeremy Sochan · left quad; strainQuestionable
SALuke Kornet · left adductor; tightness/left ankle sorenessQuestionable
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
DAL·SA
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
114.0
points / game
117.2
116.8
points allowed / game
112.2
19−32
season record
35−17
14−16
home record
18−6
5−16
away record
17−11
L6
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.2
FG%
47.4
33.9
3P%
34.7
45.1
rebounds / game
46.4
25.1
assists / game
26.2
14.8
turnovers / game
13.6
53.6
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

DAL · SA · 101 days
Dallas MavericksSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Feb 5at DALSA 135 − 123
Oct 22, 2025at DALSA 125 − 92
Mar 12, 2025at SASA 126 − 116
Mar 10, 2025at SADAL 133 − 129
Nov 16, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 93
Oct 24, 2024at DALDAL 120 − 109
Mar 19, 2024at SADAL 113 − 107
Feb 14, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at DALDAL 144 − 119
Oct 25, 2023at SADAL 126 − 119

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W
Jan 17vs UTAH138 − 120W
Jan 15vs UTAH144 − 122W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W
Jan 17vs MIN126 − 123W