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Mavericks at Lakers

NBA · Thursday, Feb 12 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final DAL 104 – LAL 124
← NBA / Feb 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL31321922104
LAL36283228124
Team box
DAL·LAL
39-79
field goals
48-86
7-26
3-pointers
10-31
19-25
free throws
18-21
28
rebounds
44
22
assists
35
15
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL35281012
Rui HachimuraLAL352131
Naji MarshallDAL291924
Max ChristieDAL301914
Austin ReavesLAL281846
P.J. WashingtonDAL341842

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +22
DAL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 22 · DAL 2lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 35%, LAL 65% · Updated Feb 12

Expected margin
LAL by 4.6
Expected score
LAL 117.8 – 113.2 DAL
Expected total
231.0
MavericksThe matchupLakers
+188Our fair odds−188
113.2Expected points117.8
−0.27Power rating+0.16
114.1Points / game115.9
117.3Allowed / game116.3
47.1FG%49.9
33.83P%35.3
45.0Rebounds / game41.1
19−34Season record32−21
2−8Last 106−4
Cooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutDeandre Ayton · Luka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · LAL chance
Our model fair34.7%65.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+18835%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−18865%————
SpreadLAL by 4.6
DALDallas Mavericks+4.6our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.0
Over231.0our total————
Under231.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 4.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more53%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more37%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.0 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·LAL
Feb 10 at PHX
last game
Feb 10 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 12, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALCaleb Martin · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALNaji Marshall · left foot; strainProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALDeandre Ayton · right knee; sorenessOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
DAL·LAL
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
114.1
points / game
115.9
117.3
points allowed / game
116.3
19−34
season record
32−21
14−16
home record
14−10
5−18
away record
18−11
L8
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
6−4
47.1
FG%
49.9
33.8
3P%
35.3
45.0
rebounds / game
41.1
25.2
assists / game
25.1
14.7
turnovers / game
15.2
53.5
points in paint / game
51.5

Rating Trend

DAL · LAL · 106 days
Dallas MavericksLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 6−4
Jan 24at DALLAL 116 − 110
Nov 28, 2025at LALLAL 129 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at DALLAL 112 − 97
Feb 25, 2025at LALLAL 107 − 99
Jan 7, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 97
Jan 17, 2024at LALLAL 127 − 110
Dec 12, 2023at DALDAL 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at LALDAL 104 − 101
Mar 17, 2023at LALDAL 111 − 110
Feb 26, 2023at DALLAL 111 − 108

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W
Jan 19at NY114 − 97W

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Feb 10vs SA108 − 136L
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L
Jan 30at WSH142 − 111W
Jan 28at CLE99 − 129L
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W