bayesRatings

Spurs at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 10 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final SA 136 – LAL 108
← NBA / Feb 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA47373121136
LAL30252627108
Team box
SA·LAL
52-92
field goals
41-85
13-33
3-pointers
11-25
19-25
free throws
15-20
45
rebounds
34
34
assists
23
13
turnovers
18
72
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2640122
Carter BryantSA271643
Dylan HarperSA271536
Luke KennardLAL281425
Drew TimmeLAL201420
Jaxson HayesLAL171343

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +41
SA +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 0 · SA 41lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 48%, LAL 52% · Updated Feb 10

Expected margin
LAL by 0.0
Expected score
LAL 115.5 – 115.5 SA
Expected total
230.9
SpursThe matchupLakers
+109Our fair odds−109
115.5Expected points115.5
+0.29Power rating+0.16
117.5Points / game116.0
112.5Allowed / game115.9
47.6FG%50.0
34.83P%35.1
46.5Rebounds / game41.2
36−17Season record32−20
7−3Last 106−4
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Lindy Waters III · Stanley UmudeOut (4 each)Austin Reaves · LeBron James
Luka Doncic · Marcus Smart

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · LAL chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+10948%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10952%————
SpreadLAL by 0.0
SASan Antonio SpursPKour margin————
LALLos Angeles LakersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 230.9
Over230.9our total————
Under230.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← SA wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more40%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more27%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.9 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.531%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuke Kennardstarted
GKobe Bufkinstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·LAL
Feb 7 vs DAL
last game
Feb 9 vs OKC
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 10, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; injury managementOut
LALLeBron James · left foot; arthritisOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; sorenessOut
LALDeandre Ayton · right knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
SA·LAL
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
117.5
points / game
116.0
112.5
points allowed / game
115.9
36−17
season record
32−20
19−6
home record
14−9
17−11
away record
18−11
W4
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
47.6
FG%
50.0
34.8
3P%
35.1
46.5
rebounds / game
41.2
26.3
assists / game
25.2
13.7
turnovers / game
15.1
50.5
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

SA · LAL · 104 days
San Antonio SpursLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 6−4
Jan 7at SASA 107 − 91
Dec 10, 2025at LALSA 132 − 119
Nov 5, 2025at LALLAL 118 − 116
Mar 17, 2025at LALLAL 125 − 109
Jan 13, 2025at LALSA 126 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at SALAL 119 − 101
Nov 15, 2024at SALAL 120 − 115
Feb 23, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 118
Dec 15, 2023at SASA 129 − 115
Dec 13, 2023at SALAL 122 − 119

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L
Jan 19vs UTAH123 − 110W

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 9vs OKC110 − 119L
Feb 7vs GS105 − 99W
Feb 5vs PHI119 − 115W
Feb 3at BKN125 − 109W
Feb 1at NY100 − 112L
Jan 30at WSH142 − 111W
Jan 28at CLE99 − 129L
Jan 26at CHI129 − 118W
Jan 24at DAL116 − 110W
Jan 22at LAC104 − 112L