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Mavericks at Timberwolves

NBA · Friday, Feb 20 · 6:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final DAL 111 – MIN 122
← NBA / Feb 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL25323123111
MIN40292726122
Team box
DAL·MIN
41-97
field goals
47-99
8-25
3-pointers
16-42
21-29
free throws
12-19
45
rebounds
54
21
assists
28
12
turnovers
19
60
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN384061
Rudy GobertMIN3222171
Naz ReidMIN302174
Khris MiddletonDAL301862
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL2415130
Naji MarshallDAL331553

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +18
DAL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 18 · DAL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 28%, MIN 72% · Updated Feb 20

Expected margin
MIN by 8.8
Expected score
MIN 119.4 – 110.6 DAL
Expected total
230.0
MavericksThe matchupTimberwolves
+263Our fair odds−263
110.6Expected points119.4
−0.30Power rating+0.48
113.9Points / game119.7
117.4Allowed / game114.8
47.2FG%48.4
33.73P%37.6
44.7Rebounds / game44.8
19−35Season record34−22
1−9Last 107−3
Cooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutRocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair27.6%72.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+26328%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−26372%————
SpreadMIN by 8.8
DALDallas Mavericks+8.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.0
Over230.0our total————
Under230.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.8 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more63%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more48%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.0 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.548%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GTyus Jonesstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MIN
Feb 12 at LAL
last game
Feb 11 vs POR
7 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMax Christie · left ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
DAL·MIN
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
113.9
points / game
119.7
117.4
points allowed / game
114.8
19−35
season record
34−22
14−16
home record
19−10
5−19
away record
15−12
L9
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
7−3
47.2
FG%
48.4
33.7
3P%
37.6
44.7
rebounds / game
44.8
25.1
assists / game
26.5
14.7
turnovers / game
14.4
53.6
points in paint / game
50.4

Rating Trend

DAL · MIN · 108 days
Dallas MavericksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jan 28at DALMIN 118 − 105
Nov 17, 2025at MINMIN 120 − 96
Jan 22, 2025at DALMIN 115 − 114
Dec 25, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 99
Oct 29, 2024at MINDAL 120 − 114
May 30, 2024at MINDAL 124 − 103post
May 28, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 100post
May 26, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 107post
May 24, 2024at MINDAL 109 − 108post
May 22, 2024at MINDAL 108 − 105post

DAL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L
Jan 28vs MIN105 − 118L
Jan 24vs LAL110 − 116L
Jan 22vs GS123 − 115W

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Feb 11vs POR133 − 109W
Feb 9vs ATL138 − 116W
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L
Feb 4at TOR128 − 126W
Feb 2at MEM128 − 137L
Jan 31at MEM131 − 114W
Jan 29vs OKC123 − 111W
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W