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Hawks at Timberwolves

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final ATL 116 – MIN 138
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL34223129116
MIN41402532138
Team box
ATL·MIN
40-99
field goals
55-92
14-45
3-pointers
16-42
22-28
free throws
12-21
47
rebounds
41
20
assists
36
19
turnovers
15
42
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
CJ McCollumATL333812
Anthony EdwardsMIN383066
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL3523125
Ayo DosunmuMIN302113
Julius RandleMIN39181210
Jaden McDanielsMIN341853

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +31
ATL +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 31 · ATL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 31%, MIN 69% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
MIN by 6.9
Expected score
MIN 121.0 – 114.1 ATL
Expected total
235.2
HawksThe matchupTimberwolves
+222Our fair odds−222
114.1Expected points121.0
−0.08Power rating+0.51
117.5Points / game119.1
118.4Allowed / game114.8
47.4FG%48.1
37.03P%37.5
42.2Rebounds / game44.9
26−28Season record32−22
6−4Last 105−5
Caleb Houstan · Jonathan Kuminga
Nikola Djurisic · RayJ DennisOutJohnny Juzang · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair31.1%68.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+22231%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−22269%————
SpreadMIN by 6.9
ATLAtlanta Hawks+6.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.2
Over235.2our total————
Under235.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 6.9 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%
← ATL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more59%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more43%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.2 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FAsa Newellstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIN
Feb 7 vs CHA
last game
Feb 8 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLDyson Daniels · right ankle; inflammationQuestionable
ATLJalen Johnson · left knee; inflammationQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINJohnny Juzang · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
ATL·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
117.5
points / game
119.1
118.4
points allowed / game
114.8
26−28
season record
32−22
10−15
home record
17−10
16−13
away record
15−12
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.4
FG%
48.1
37.0
3P%
37.5
42.2
rebounds / game
44.9
30.8
assists / game
26.3
14.3
turnovers / game
14.4
51.8
points in paint / game
49.9

Rating Trend

ATL · MIN · 103 days
Atlanta HawksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 4−5
Dec 31, 2025at ATLATL 126 − 102
Jan 27, 2025at MINMIN 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2024at ATLATL 117 − 104
Apr 12, 2024at MINMIN 109 − 106
Oct 30, 2023at ATLATL 127 − 113
Mar 22, 2023at MINMIN 125 − 124
Mar 13, 2023at ATLMIN 136 − 115
Jan 19, 2022at ATLATL 134 − 122
Dec 6, 2021at MINATL 121 − 110

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Feb 8vs LAC96 − 115L
Feb 6vs NO115 − 119L
Feb 4at TOR128 − 126W
Feb 2at MEM128 − 137L
Jan 31at MEM131 − 114W
Jan 29vs OKC123 − 111W
Jan 28at DAL118 − 105W
Jan 26vs GS108 − 83W
Jan 25vs GS85 − 111L
Jan 22vs CHI115 − 120L