bayesRatings

Jazz at Hawks

NBA · Thursday, Feb 5 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final UTAH 119 – ATL 121
← NBA / Feb 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH31293623119
ATL30313129121
Team box
UTAH·ATL
47-101
field goals
48-98
12-30
3-pointers
8-35
13-20
free throws
17-23
49
rebounds
50
19
assists
34
11
turnovers
10
58
points in paint
76
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jock LandaleATL3226115
Isaiah CollierUTAH4825711
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342325
Jalen JohnsonATL39221615
Ace BaileyUTAH402061
Corey KispertATL252020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +12
UTAH +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 5 · UTAH 12lead changes: 22

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 26%, ATL 74% · Updated Feb 5

Expected margin
ATL by 7.9
Expected score
ATL 128.0 – 120.0 UTAH
Expected total
248.0
JazzThe matchupHawks
+280Our fair odds−280
120.0Expected points128.0
−0.90Power rating−0.08
118.3Points / game117.4
126.9Allowed / game118.3
46.9FG%47.4
34.93P%37.1
43.7Rebounds / game42.2
16−35Season record25−27
2−8Last 105−5
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jock Landale
John Konchar · Keyonte George
Lonzo BallOutDuop Reath · Kristaps Porzingis
Luke Kennard · N'Faly Dante

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair26.3%73.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+28026%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−28074%————
SpreadATL by 7.9
UTAHUtah Jazz+7.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−7.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 248.0
Over248.0our total————
Under248.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 7.9 expected
Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more61%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more46%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

248.0 expected
195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: <1%211 points: <1%212 points: <1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 2%260 points: 2%261 points: 2%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: 1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%311 points: <1%312 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 238.565%
Total over 248.548%
Total over 258.530%
Total from 239 to 25835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·ATL
Feb 3 at IND
last game
Feb 3 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 5, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · trade pendingOut
UTAHJock Landale · trade pendingOut
UTAHJohn Konchar · trade pendingOut
UTAHKeyonte George · left ankle; sprainOut
UTAHLonzo Ball · trade pendingOut
UTAHVince Williams Jr. · trade pendingOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKevin Love · n/a; illnessQuestionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLDuop Reath · not with teamOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · not with teamOut
ATLLuke Kennard · not with teamOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · dental; fractureQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
UTAH·ATL
−0.90
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
118.3
points / game
117.4
126.9
points allowed / game
118.3
16−35
season record
25−27
10−17
home record
9−14
6−18
away record
16−13
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.9
FG%
47.4
34.9
3P%
37.1
43.7
rebounds / game
42.2
30.3
assists / game
30.7
15.8
turnovers / game
14.4
52.0
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

UTAH · ATL · 99 days
Utah JazzAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 5−4
Nov 13, 2025at UTAHATL 132 − 122
Apr 6, 2025at ATLATL 147 − 134
Jan 7, 2025at UTAHATL 124 − 121
Mar 15, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 122
Feb 27, 2024at ATLATL 124 − 97
Feb 3, 2023at UTAHATL 115 − 108
Nov 9, 2022at ATLUTAH 125 − 119
Nov 9, 2021at UTAHUTAH 110 − 98
Nov 4, 2021at ATLUTAH 116 − 98

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Feb 3at IND131 − 122W
Feb 1at TOR100 − 107L
Jan 30vs BKN99 − 109L
Jan 28vs GS124 − 140L
Jan 27vs LAC103 − 115L
Jan 24vs MIA116 − 147L
Jan 22vs SA109 − 126L
Jan 20vs MIN127 − 122W
Jan 19at SA110 − 123L
Jan 17at DAL120 − 138L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L