bayesRatings

Hornets at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Feb 7 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final CHA 126 – ATL 119
← NBA / Feb 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA32283828126
ATL35253029119
Team box
CHA·ATL
46-95
field goals
43-88
18-39
3-pointers
18-37
16-16
free throws
15-17
49
rebounds
30
31
assists
30
16
turnovers
10
56
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL403198
Miles BridgesCHA342665
Kon KnueppelCHA362384
LaMelo BallCHA311919
Zaccharie RisacherATL231830
Brandon MillerCHA351664

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +9
CHA +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 9 · CHA 9lead changes: 23

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 39%, ATL 61% · Updated Feb 7

Expected margin
ATL by 2.9
Expected score
ATL 117.9 – 115.0 CHA
Expected total
232.9
HornetsThe matchupHawks
+157Our fair odds−157
115.0Expected points117.9
−0.31Power rating−0.08
115.8Points / game117.5
113.9Allowed / game118.3
46.3FG%47.4
37.13P%36.8
46.0Rebounds / game42.4
24−28Season record26−27
9−1Last 106−4
Antonio Reeves · Coby White
KJ Simpson · Liam McNeeley
Malaki BranhamOutJonathan Kuminga · N'Faly Dante

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+15739%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−15761%————
SpreadATL by 2.9
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.9
Over232.9our total————
Under232.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 2.9 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%
← CHA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more48%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more33%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.9 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.531%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·ATL
Feb 5 at HOU
last game
Feb 5 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 7, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACoby White · left calf; strainOut
CHAKJ Simpson · not with teamOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMalaki Branham · not with teamOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
CHAXavier Tillman · not with teamOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · not with teamOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · dental; fractureQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
CHA·ATL
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
115.8
points / game
117.5
113.9
points allowed / game
118.3
24−28
season record
26−27
11−13
home record
10−14
13−15
away record
16−13
W8
streak
W2
9−1
last 10
6−4
46.3
FG%
47.4
37.1
3P%
36.8
46.0
rebounds / game
42.4
26.5
assists / game
30.8
15.8
turnovers / game
14.4
47.8
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

CHA · ATL · 101 days
Charlotte HornetsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Dec 18, 2025at CHACHA 133 − 126
Nov 23, 2025at ATLATL 113 − 110
Mar 18, 2025at CHAATL 134 − 102
Mar 12, 2025at ATLATL 123 − 110
Nov 30, 2024at CHAATL 107 − 104
Oct 25, 2024at ATLATL 125 − 120
Apr 10, 2024at ATLCHA 115 − 114
Mar 23, 2024at ATLATL 132 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at CHACHA 122 − 99
Oct 25, 2023at CHACHA 116 − 110

CHA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L
Jan 18at DEN110 − 87W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W
Jan 19vs MIL110 − 112L
Jan 17vs BOS106 − 132L