bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Feb 21 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final MEM 120 – MIA 136
← NBA / Feb 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM33352626120
MIA39343924136
Team box
MEM·MIA
45-95
field goals
49-95
15-43
3-pointers
13-36
15-22
free throws
25-33
35
rebounds
57
31
assists
36
13
turnovers
18
54
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
GG JacksonMEM262892
Andrew WigginsMIA292873
Norman PowellMIA272526
Jaylen WellsMEM272522
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM211836
Ty JeromeMEM221764

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +24
MEM +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 24 · MEM 1lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 40%, MIA 60% · Updated Feb 21

Expected margin
MIA by 3.5
Expected score
MIA 119.2 – 115.7 MEM
Expected total
234.8
GrizzliesThe matchupHeat
+152Our fair odds−152
115.7Expected points119.2
−0.16Power rating+0.07
115.4Points / game119.7
117.4Allowed / game116.8
46.0FG%46.3
34.93P%35.8
45.0Rebounds / game47.1
21−33Season record30−27
3−7Last 105−5
Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi AldamaOutJahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · MIA chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+15240%————
MIAMiami Heat−15260%————
SpreadMIA by 3.5
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+3.5our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.5 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%
← MEM wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more50%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more35%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GWalter Clayton Jr.started
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·MIA
Feb 20 vs UTAH
last game
Feb 20 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 21, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; sprainOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; hyperextensionOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMKyle Anderson · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · right calf; contusionQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIADavion Mitchell · head; illnessDoubtful
MIADru Smith · left calf; sorenessQuestionable
MIANikola Jovic · low back; tightnessQuestionable
MIANorman Powell · head; illnessProbable
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
MEM·MIA
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
115.4
points / game
119.7
117.4
points allowed / game
116.8
21−33
season record
30−27
12−15
home record
16−11
9−18
away record
14−16
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
46.0
FG%
46.3
34.9
3P%
35.8
45.0
rebounds / game
47.1
28.7
assists / game
28.6
15.2
turnovers / game
14.1
49.6
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

MEM · MIA · 109 days
Memphis GrizzliesMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 4−5
Oct 24, 2025at MEMMIA 146 − 114
Apr 3, 2025at MIAMEM 110 − 108
Mar 15, 2025at MEMMEM 125 − 91
Jan 24, 2024at MIAMEM 105 − 96
Nov 8, 2023at MEMMIA 108 − 102
Mar 15, 2023at MIAMIA 138 − 119
Dec 5, 2022at MEMMEM 101 − 93
Dec 6, 2021at MIAMEM 105 − 90
Oct 30, 2021at MEMMIA 129 − 103

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W
Jan 31vs MIN114 − 131L
Jan 30at NO106 − 114L
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 20at ATL128 − 97W
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L