bayesRatings

Jazz at Heat

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final UTAH 115 – MIA 111
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH26352430115
MIA32203029111
Team box
UTAH·MIA
39-92
field goals
33-79
10-36
3-pointers
15-45
27-31
free throws
30-44
58
rebounds
43
29
assists
24
12
turnovers
14
54
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Andrew WigginsMIA362652
Bam AdebayoMIA3723115
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH252253
Kasparas JakucionisMIA322031
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH251781
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH2316112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +15
UTAH +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 15 · UTAH 9lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 23%, MIA 77% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
MIA by 10.2
Expected score
MIA 126.2 – 116.0 UTAH
Expected total
242.2
JazzThe matchupHeat
+331Our fair odds−331
116.0Expected points126.2
−0.90Power rating+0.09
118.3Points / game119.7
126.7Allowed / game117.3
46.9FG%46.4
35.03P%35.9
44.0Rebounds / game46.8
16−37Season record28−26
2−8Last 105−5
Kevin Love · Keyonte George
Walker KesslerOutKeshad Johnson · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · MIA chance
Our model fair23.2%76.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+33123%————
MIAMiami Heat−33177%————
SpreadMIA by 10.2
UTAHUtah Jazz+10.2our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.2
Over242.2our total————
Under242.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 10.2 expected
Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 2%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 52 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more67%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more52%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.2 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.530%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
CJusuf Nurkicstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·MIA
Feb 7 at ORL
last game
Feb 8 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHKevin Love · restOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right ankle; sprainOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Miami Heat
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury the the ribsOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right forearm; strainDoubtful
MIANorman Powell · low back; back tightnessQuestionable
MIABam Adebayo · right hip; tightnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
UTAH·MIA
−0.90
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
118.3
points / game
119.7
126.7
points allowed / game
117.3
16−37
season record
28−26
10−17
home record
16−10
6−20
away record
12−16
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.9
FG%
46.4
35.0
3P%
35.9
44.0
rebounds / game
46.8
30.1
assists / game
28.7
15.8
turnovers / game
14.3
52.2
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

UTAH · MIA · 103 days
Utah JazzMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 7−2
Jan 24at UTAHMIA 147 − 116
Jan 9, 2025at UTAHMIA 97 − 92
Jan 4, 2025at MIAUTAH 136 − 100
Mar 2, 2024at MIAMIA 126 − 120
Dec 30, 2023at UTAHUTAH 117 − 109
Mar 13, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 115
Dec 31, 2022at UTAHMIA 126 − 123
Nov 13, 2021at UTAHMIA 111 − 105
Nov 6, 2021at MIAMIA 118 − 115

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Feb 7at ORL117 − 120L
Feb 5at ATL119 − 121L
Feb 3at IND131 − 122W
Feb 1at TOR100 − 107L
Jan 30vs BKN99 − 109L
Jan 28vs GS124 − 140L
Jan 27vs LAC103 − 115L
Jan 24vs MIA116 − 147L
Jan 22vs SA109 − 126L
Jan 20vs MIN127 − 122W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W
Jan 22at POR110 − 127L