bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MEM 113 – GS 114
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM32333315113
GS32252829114
Team box
MEM·GS
42-83
field goals
44-83
10-32
3-pointers
11-33
19-24
free throws
15-19
37
rebounds
40
26
assists
31
18
turnovers
23
52
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ty JeromeMEM201937
Pat SpencerGS321737
Jahmai MashackMEM221721
Al HorfordGS261696
Gui SantosGS301682
Brandin PodziemskiGS321645

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +17
MEM +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · MEM 17lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 35%, GS 65% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
GS by 5.1
Expected score
GS 118.1 – 113.0 MEM
Expected total
231.2
GrizzliesThe matchupWarriors
+183Our fair odds−183
113.0Expected points118.1
−0.12Power rating+0.27
115.3Points / game115.6
117.5Allowed / game113.5
45.8FG%46.0
34.93P%36.1
45.5Rebounds / game42.6
20−31Season record28−25
2−8Last 104−6
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Santi Aldama · Zach EdeyOutJimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · GS chance
Our model fair35.3%64.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+18335%————
GSGolden State Warriors−18365%————
SpreadGS by 5.1
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+5.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.2
Over231.2our total————
Under231.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 5.1 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%
← MEM wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more54%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more39%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.2 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FKyle Andersonstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·GS
Feb 7 at POR
last game
Feb 7 at LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · right calf; contusionQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSWill Richard · right knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MEM·GS
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
115.3
points / game
115.6
117.5
points allowed / game
113.5
20−31
season record
28−25
11−15
home record
17−9
9−16
away record
11−16
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
45.8
FG%
46.0
34.9
3P%
36.1
45.5
rebounds / game
42.6
28.7
assists / game
28.7
15.3
turnovers / game
15.6
49.3
points in paint / game
43.1

Rating Trend

MEM · GS · 103 days
Memphis GrizzliesGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Oct 27, 2025at GSGS 131 − 118
Apr 1, 2025at MEMGS 134 − 125
Jan 4, 2025at GSGS 121 − 113
Dec 19, 2024at MEMMEM 144 − 93
Nov 15, 2024at GSGS 123 − 118
Mar 20, 2024at GSGS 137 − 116
Feb 2, 2024at MEMGS 121 − 101
Jan 15, 2024at MEMMEM 116 − 107
Mar 18, 2023at MEMMEM 133 − 119
Mar 9, 2023at MEMMEM 131 − 110

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W
Jan 31vs MIN114 − 131L
Jan 30at NO106 − 114L
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L
Jan 19vs MIA135 − 112W