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Grizzlies at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 4 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final MEM 129 – SAC 125
← NBA / Feb 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM28303140129
SAC31263434125
Team box
MEM·SAC
45-90
field goals
45-100
18-41
3-pointers
11-36
21-28
free throws
24-28
44
rebounds
46
30
assists
29
13
turnovers
13
42
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ty JeromeMEM212817
Domantas SabonisSAC2424153
Cam SpencerMEM272035
DeMar DeRozanSAC282035
Jaylen WellsMEM261831
GG JacksonMEM271672

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +8
MEM +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 8 · MEM 8lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 56%, SAC 44% · Updated Feb 4

Expected margin
MEM by 3.4
Expected score
MEM 119.1 – 115.7 SAC
Expected total
234.8
GrizzliesThe matchupKings
−126Our fair odds+126
119.1Expected points115.7
−0.12Power rating−0.58
115.0Points / game110.2
116.8Allowed / game120.4
45.6FG%46.6
34.53P%34.9
45.9Rebounds / game41.0
19−29Season record12−39
3−7Last 101−9
Brandon Clarke · Georges Niang
Ja Morant · Kyle Anderson
Taylor HendricksOutDaeqwon Plowden · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · SAC chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−12656%————
SACSacramento Kings+12644%————
SpreadMEM by 3.4
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−3.4our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 3.4 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%
← MEM wins bySAC wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more49%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more34%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·SAC
Feb 2 vs MIN
last game
Feb 1 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 4, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMGeorges Niang · trade pendingOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKyle Anderson · trade pendingOut
MEMTaylor Hendricks · trade pendingOut
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · trade pendingOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryDoubtful
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · lower back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
MEM·SAC
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
115.0
points / game
110.2
116.8
points allowed / game
120.4
19−29
season record
12−39
11−15
home record
9−16
8−14
away record
3−23
W1
streak
L9
3−7
last 10
1−9
45.6
FG%
46.6
34.5
3P%
34.9
45.9
rebounds / game
41.0
28.9
assists / game
25.0
15.3
turnovers / game
14.6
49.7
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

MEM · SAC · 98 days
Memphis GrizzliesSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 6−4
Nov 30, 2025at SACMEM 115 − 107
Nov 20, 2025at MEMMEM 137 − 96
Mar 17, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 122
Jan 3, 2025at SACSAC 138 − 133
Dec 5, 2024at MEMMEM 115 − 110
Mar 18, 2024at SACSAC 121 − 111
Jan 29, 2024at MEMSAC 103 − 94
Dec 31, 2023at MEMSAC 123 − 92
Jan 23, 2023at SACSAC 133 − 100
Jan 1, 2023at MEMMEM 118 − 108

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W
Jan 31vs MIN114 − 131L
Jan 30at NO106 − 114L
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L
Jan 21vs ATL122 − 124L
Jan 18vs ORL126 − 109W
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W

SAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Feb 1at WSH112 − 116L
Jan 30at BOS93 − 112L
Jan 29at PHI111 − 113L
Jan 27at NY87 − 103L
Jan 25at DET116 − 139L
Jan 23at CLE118 − 123L
Jan 21vs TOR109 − 122L
Jan 20vs MIA117 − 130L
Jan 18vs POR110 − 117L
Jan 16vs WSH128 − 115W