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Grizzlies at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MEM 116 – DEN 122
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM28262735116
DEN30303329122
Team box
MEM·DEN
42-91
field goals
43-81
15-39
3-pointers
10-22
17-21
free throws
26-32
29
rebounds
46
28
assists
29
6
turnovers
15
50
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN34261511
Jamal MurrayDEN332367
GG JacksonMEM282153
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN282130
Ty JeromeMEM211917
Jaylen WellsMEM241710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +15
MEM +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 15 · MEM 4lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 33%, DEN 67% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
DEN by 5.0
Expected score
DEN 121.8 – 116.8 MEM
Expected total
238.7
GrizzliesThe matchupNuggets
+207Our fair odds−207
116.8Expected points121.8
−0.15Power rating+0.38
115.2Points / game120.3
117.4Allowed / game116.4
45.9FG%49.6
34.83P%39.4
45.3Rebounds / game42.6
20−32Season record34−20
2−8Last 105−5
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Santi Aldama · Zach EdeyOut (4 each)Aaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · DEN chance
Our model fair32.6%67.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+20733%————
DENDenver Nuggets−20767%————
SpreadDEN by 5.0
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+5our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−5our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.7
Over238.7our total————
Under238.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 5.0 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%
← MEM wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more54%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more38%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.7 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GJahmai Mashackstarted
FKyle Andersonstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·DEN
Feb 9 at GS
last game
Feb 9 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; sorenessDoubtful
MEMWalter Clayton Jr. · right calf; contusionDoubtful
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENSpencer Jones · concussion protocolQuestionable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainProbable
DENJamal Murray · left hip; inflammationProbable
DENNikola Jokic · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
MEM·DEN
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
115.2
points / game
120.3
117.4
points allowed / game
116.4
20−32
season record
34−20
11−15
home record
14−11
9−17
away record
20−9
L3
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
45.9
FG%
49.6
34.8
3P%
39.4
45.3
rebounds / game
42.6
28.7
assists / game
28.0
15.3
turnovers / game
12.7
49.3
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

MEM · DEN · 105 days
Memphis GrizzliesDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 8−2
Nov 24, 2025at MEMDEN 125 − 115
Apr 11, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 109
Nov 19, 2024at MEMDEN 122 − 110
Nov 17, 2024at MEMMEM 105 − 90
Apr 14, 2024at MEMDEN 126 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at DENDEN 128 − 103
Dec 28, 2023at DENDEN 142 − 105
Oct 27, 2023at MEMDEN 108 − 104
Mar 3, 2023at DENDEN 113 − 97
Feb 25, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 94

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W
Jan 31vs MIN114 − 131L
Jan 30at NO106 − 114L
Jan 28vs CHA97 − 112L
Jan 26at HOU99 − 108L
Jan 23vs NO127 − 133L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W