bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final CLE 119 – DEN 117
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE26283332119
DEN30293325117
Team box
CLE·DEN
43-92
field goals
38-85
15-45
3-pointers
13-40
18-22
free throws
28-35
39
rebounds
46
25
assists
25
12
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE3432110
Nikola JokicDEN33221411
James HardenCLE3622107
Jarrett AllenCLE3522131
Christian BraunDEN322052
Julian StrawtherDEN292060

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +11
CLE +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 11 · CLE 6lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 47%, DEN 53% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
CLE by 0.4
Expected score
CLE 119.4 – 119.0 DEN
Expected total
238.4
CavaliersThe matchupNuggets
+113Our fair odds−113
119.4Expected points119.0
+0.50Power rating+0.40
119.7Points / game120.4
115.9Allowed / game116.3
47.7FG%49.6
36.03P%39.5
44.6Rebounds / game42.5
32−21Season record34−19
8−2Last 105−5
Emanuel Miller · Evan Mobley
Max StrusOutAaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Spencer Jones
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DEN chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers+11347%————
DENDenver Nuggets−11353%————
SpreadCLE by 0.4
CLECleveland Cavaliers−0.4our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.4
Over238.4our total————
Under238.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 0.4 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%
← CLE wins byDEN wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more41%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more27%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.4 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DEN
Feb 7 at SAC
last game
Feb 7 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; strainOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEDean Wade · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CLEJaylon Tyson · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CLETyrese Proctor · illness; illnessQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · concussion protocolOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · left hip; inflammationQuestionable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainProbable
DENNikola Jokic · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
CLE·DEN
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
119.7
points / game
120.4
115.9
points allowed / game
116.3
32−21
season record
34−19
17−11
home record
14−10
15−10
away record
20−9
W3
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
47.7
FG%
49.6
36.0
3P%
39.5
44.6
rebounds / game
42.5
28.7
assists / game
28.0
14.4
turnovers / game
12.7
51.1
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

CLE · DEN · 103 days
Cleveland CavaliersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 3−6
Jan 2at CLECLE 113 − 108
Dec 27, 2024at DENCLE 149 − 135
Dec 5, 2024at CLECLE 126 − 114
Mar 31, 2024at DENDEN 130 − 101
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 121 − 109
Feb 23, 2023at CLEDEN 115 − 109
Jan 6, 2023at DENDEN 121 − 108
Mar 18, 2022at CLECLE 119 − 116
Oct 25, 2021at DENCLE 99 − 87

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Feb 7at SAC132 − 126W
Feb 4at LAC124 − 91W
Feb 1at POR130 − 111W
Jan 30at PHX113 − 126L
Jan 28vs LAL129 − 99W
Jan 26vs ORL114 − 98W
Jan 24at ORL119 − 105W
Jan 23vs SAC123 − 118W
Jan 21at CHA94 − 87W
Jan 19vs OKC104 − 136L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L