bayesRatings

Nuggets at Pistons

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final DEN 121 – DET 124
← NBA / Feb 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN27233041121
DET32372431124
Team box
DEN·DET
37-83
field goals
43-94
10-30
3-pointers
12-29
37-43
free throws
26-30
43
rebounds
43
20
assists
27
10
turnovers
9
52
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN373218
Cade CunninghamDET3829210
Nikola JokicDEN3324154
Duncan RobinsonDET252032
Jalen DurenDET3119131
Peyton WatsonDEN381732

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +20
DEN +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 20 · DEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 42%, DET 58% · Updated Feb 3

Expected margin
DET by 3.2
Expected score
DET 117.1 – 114.0 DEN
Expected total
231.1
NuggetsThe matchupPistons
+140Our fair odds−140
114.0Expected points117.1
+0.40Power rating+0.51
119.9Points / game117.3
115.7Allowed / game109.7
49.7FG%48.2
39.83P%34.8
42.4Rebounds / game45.8
33−17Season record36−12
6−4Last 108−2
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Curtis Jones · Tamar BatesOutBobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Isaac Jones · Jaden Ivey
Tolu Smith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · DET chance
Our model fair41.7%58.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+14042%————
DETDetroit Pistons−14058%————
SpreadDET by 3.2
DENDenver Nuggets+3.2our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.1
Over231.1our total————
Under231.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 3.2 expected
Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%
← DEN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more49%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more34%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.1 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·DET
Feb 1 vs OKC
last game
Feb 1 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 3, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETJaden Ivey · not with teamOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
DEN·DET
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
119.9
points / game
117.3
115.7
points allowed / game
109.7
33−17
season record
36−12
14−10
home record
20−5
19−7
away record
16−7
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
8−2
49.7
FG%
48.2
39.8
3P%
34.8
42.4
rebounds / game
45.8
28.0
assists / game
26.8
12.6
turnovers / game
15.5
48.0
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

DEN · DET · 97 days
Denver NuggetsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 2−7
Jan 27at DENDET 109 − 107
Feb 28, 2025at DETDEN 134 − 119
Dec 28, 2024at DENDEN 134 − 121
Jan 7, 2024at DENDEN 131 − 114
Nov 20, 2023at DETDEN 107 − 103
Mar 16, 2023at DETDEN 119 − 100
Nov 22, 2022at DENDET 110 − 108
Jan 25, 2022at DETDEN 110 − 105
Jan 23, 2022at DENDEN 117 − 111

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W
Jan 22at WSH107 − 97W
Jan 20vs LAL107 − 115L
Jan 18vs CHA87 − 110L
Jan 17vs WSH121 − 115W
Jan 14at DAL118 − 109W

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Feb 1vs BKN130 − 77W
Jan 30at GS131 − 124W
Jan 29at PHX96 − 114L
Jan 27at DEN109 − 107W
Jan 25vs SAC139 − 116W
Jan 23vs HOU104 − 111L
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W
Jan 19vs BOS104 − 103W
Jan 17vs IND121 − 78W
Jan 15vs PHX108 − 105W