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Heat at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final MIA 123 – NO 111
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA31273827123
NO25303026111
Team box
MIA·NO
42-102
field goals
42-92
14-47
3-pointers
11-31
25-33
free throws
16-19
56
rebounds
46
25
assists
27
8
turnovers
13
56
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA3727144
Zion WilliamsonNO332543
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA352384
Trey Murphy IIINO271946
Kel'el WareMIA2816120
Simone FontecchioMIA271541

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 4 · MIA 17lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 62%, NO 38% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
MIA by 5.2
Expected score
MIA 120.0 – 114.8 NO
Expected total
234.8
HeatThe matchupPelicans
−164Our fair odds+164
120.0Expected points114.8
+0.06Power rating−0.65
119.5Points / game114.7
117.3Allowed / game120.4
46.3FG%46.2
35.83P%34.4
46.7Rebounds / game43.5
28−27Season record15−40
5−5Last 105−5
Norman Powell · Pelle Larsson
Terry Rozier · Tyler HerroOut (4 each)Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Micah Peavy · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NO chance
Our model fair62.2%37.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−16462%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+16438%————
SpreadMIA by 5.2
MIAMiami Heat−5.2our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+5.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 5.2 expected
Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byNO wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more55%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more39%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
FMyron Gardnerstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NO
Feb 9 vs UTAH
last game
Feb 9 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIANorman Powell · low back; tightnessOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right forearm; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right costochondral; injury to the ribsOut
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left toe; inflammationQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOMicah Peavy · right great toe; sprainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
MIA·NO
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
119.5
points / game
114.7
117.3
points allowed / game
120.4
28−27
season record
15−40
16−11
home record
9−19
12−16
away record
6−21
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.3
FG%
46.2
35.8
3P%
34.4
46.7
rebounds / game
43.5
28.6
assists / game
25.0
14.3
turnovers / game
14.1
54.0
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

MIA · NO · 105 days
Miami HeatNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 1−8
Jan 4at MIAMIA 125 − 106
Apr 11, 2025at NOMIA 153 − 104
Jan 1, 2025at MIAMIA 119 − 108
Mar 22, 2024at MIANO 111 − 88
Feb 23, 2024at NOMIA 106 − 95
Jan 22, 2023at MIAMIA 100 − 96
Jan 18, 2023at NOMIA 124 − 98
Feb 10, 2022at NOMIA 112 − 97
Nov 17, 2021at MIAMIA 113 − 98

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W
Jan 24at UTAH147 − 116W

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W
Feb 4at MIL137 − 141L
Feb 2at CHA95 − 102L
Jan 31at PHI114 − 124L
Jan 30vs MEM114 − 106W
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L
Jan 25at SA104 − 95W
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W
Jan 21vs DET104 − 112L