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Heat at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Feb 20 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIA 128 – ATL 97
← NBA / Feb 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA29283041128
ATL1635242297
Team box
MIA·ATL
52-100
field goals
36-95
13-35
3-pointers
16-38
11-14
free throws
9-15
58
rebounds
46
31
assists
26
9
turnovers
13
72
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIA232443
Onyeka OkongwuATL292233
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL372033
CJ McCollumATL272021
Bam AdebayoMIA271785
Jalen JohnsonATL35161611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +34
MIA +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · MIA 34lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, ATL 51% · Updated Feb 20

Expected margin
MIA by 1.1
Expected score
MIA 119.6 – 118.5 ATL
Expected total
238.2
HeatThe matchupHawks
+102Our fair odds−102
119.6Expected points118.5
+0.07Power rating−0.10
119.6Points / game117.3
117.2Allowed / game118.4
46.2FG%47.2
35.73P%36.6
46.9Rebounds / game42.4
29−27Season record27−30
5−5Last 105−5
Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Vladislav GoldinOut (3 each)Caleb Houstan · Jonathan Kuminga
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+10249%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10251%————
SpreadMIA by 1.1
MIAMiami Heat−1.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.2
Over238.2our total————
Under238.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.1 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more43%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more29%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.2 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Feb 11 at NO
last game
Feb 19 at PHI
8 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
0
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
MIA·ATL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
119.6
points / game
117.3
117.2
points allowed / game
118.4
29−27
season record
27−30
16−11
home record
10−15
13−16
away record
17−15
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.2
FG%
47.2
35.7
3P%
36.6
46.9
rebounds / game
42.4
28.6
assists / game
30.4
14.2
turnovers / game
14.3
54.0
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 108 days
Miami HeatAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Feb 3at MIAATL 127 − 115
Dec 26, 2025at ATLMIA 126 − 111
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 112
Feb 26, 2025at MIAMIA 131 − 109
Feb 24, 2025at ATLATL 98 − 86
Dec 28, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 110
Apr 9, 2024at ATLMIA 117 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at MIAATL 109 − 108
Dec 22, 2023at MIAMIA 122 − 113
Nov 11, 2023at ATLMIA 117 − 109

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 11at NO123 − 111W
Feb 9vs UTAH111 − 115L
Feb 8at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 6at BOS96 − 98L
Feb 3vs ATL115 − 127L
Feb 1vs CHI134 − 91W
Jan 31vs CHI118 − 125L
Jan 29at CHI116 − 113W
Jan 28vs ORL124 − 133L
Jan 25at PHX111 − 102W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 19at PHI117 − 107W
Feb 11at CHA107 − 110L
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W