bayesRatings

Hawks at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final ATL 107 – CHA 110
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL27222632107
CHA35233121110
Team box
ATL·CHA
37-84
field goals
33-88
10-36
3-pointers
19-51
23-30
free throws
25-29
41
rebounds
50
28
assists
21
13
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA363192
LaMelo BallCHA322446
Dyson DanielsATL252134
Jalen JohnsonATL3419139
Kon KnueppelCHA301864
Onyeka OkongwuATL291830

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +19
ATL +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 19 · ATL 3lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 49%, CHA 51% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
CHA by 0.8
Expected score
CHA 116.9 – 116.1 ATL
Expected total
233.0
HawksThe matchupHornets
+104Our fair odds−104
116.1Expected points116.9
−0.09Power rating−0.26
117.5Points / game115.8
118.8Allowed / game113.9
47.3FG%46.2
36.93P%37.4
42.3Rebounds / game45.9
26−29Season record25−29
6−4Last 109−1
Caleb Houstan · Jonathan Kuminga
Nikola Djurisic · RayJ DennisOutAntonio Reeves · Coby White
Liam McNeeley · Miles Bridges
Moussa Diabate

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CHA chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10449%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−10451%————
SpreadCHA by 0.8
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.0
Over233.0our total————
Under233.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 0.8 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%
← ATL wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more43%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more29%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.0 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FGrant Williamsstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CHA
Feb 9 at MIN
last game
Feb 9 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; bone bruiseOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · coach's decisionOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLDyson Daniels · right ankle; inflammationQuestionable
ATLJalen Johnson · left knee; inflammationQuestionable
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left quad; contusionQuestionable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACoby White · left calf; strainOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAMiles Bridges · league suspensionOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · league suspensionOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
ATL·CHA
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
117.5
points / game
115.8
118.8
points allowed / game
113.9
26−29
season record
25−29
10−15
home record
11−14
16−14
away record
14−15
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
9−1
47.3
FG%
46.2
36.9
3P%
37.4
42.3
rebounds / game
45.9
30.6
assists / game
26.5
14.4
turnovers / game
15.9
51.6
points in paint / game
47.6

Rating Trend

ATL · CHA · 105 days
Atlanta HawksCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 4−6
Feb 7at ATLCHA 126 − 119
Dec 18, 2025at CHACHA 133 − 126
Nov 23, 2025at ATLATL 113 − 110
Mar 18, 2025at CHAATL 134 − 102
Mar 12, 2025at ATLATL 123 − 110
Nov 30, 2024at CHAATL 107 − 104
Oct 25, 2024at ATLATL 125 − 120
Apr 10, 2024at ATLCHA 115 − 114
Mar 23, 2024at ATLATL 132 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at CHACHA 122 − 99

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Feb 9at MIN116 − 138L
Feb 7vs CHA119 − 126L
Feb 5vs UTAH121 − 119W
Feb 3at MIA127 − 115W
Jan 31at IND124 − 129L
Jan 29vs HOU86 − 104L
Jan 28at BOS117 − 106W
Jan 26vs IND132 − 116W
Jan 23vs PHX110 − 103W
Jan 21at MEM124 − 122W

CHA · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W