bayesRatings

Pistons at Hornets

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final DET 110 – CHA 104
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET29322722110
CHA33242126104
Team box
DET·CHA
41-87
field goals
34-82
5-25
3-pointers
19-47
23-28
free throws
17-17
41
rebounds
39
20
assists
22
10
turnovers
21
60
points in paint
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET373397
Brandon MillerCHA362433
LaMelo BallCHA292044
Kon KnueppelCHA342053
Duncan RobinsonDET241834
Jalen DurenDET201552

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +16
DET +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 8 · DET 16lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 64%, CHA 36% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
DET by 4.7
Expected score
DET 114.5 – 109.9 CHA
Expected total
224.4
PistonsThe matchupHornets
−180Our fair odds+180
114.5Expected points109.9
+0.51Power rating−0.31
117.5Points / game116.0
109.7Allowed / game114.0
48.3FG%46.3
34.93P%37.3
45.7Rebounds / game46.1
38−13Season record25−28
7−3Last 109−1
Bobi Klintman · Chaz Lanier
Dario Saric · Ronald Holland II
Tolu SmithOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Coby White
Liam McNeeley · Malaki Branham
PJ Hall

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHA chance
Our model fair64.3%35.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−18064%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+18036%————
SpreadDET by 4.7
DETDetroit Pistons−4.7our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.4
Over224.4our total————
Under224.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 4.7 expected
Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%
← DET wins byCHA wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more53%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more38%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHA
Feb 6 vs NY
last game
Feb 7 at ATL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETDario Saric · not with teamOut
DETRonald Holland II · personal reasonsOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETJalen Duren · right knee; sorenessProbable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHACoby White · left calf; strainOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAMalaki Branham · not with teamOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
DET·CHA
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
117.5
points / game
116.0
109.7
points allowed / game
114.0
38−13
season record
25−28
22−6
home record
11−13
16−7
away record
14−15
W1
streak
W9
7−3
last 10
9−1
48.3
FG%
46.3
34.9
3P%
37.3
45.7
rebounds / game
46.1
26.8
assists / game
26.6
15.4
turnovers / game
15.8
56.9
points in paint / game
48.0

Rating Trend

DET · CHA · 103 days
Detroit PistonsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 4−6
Dec 20, 2025at DETDET 112 − 86
Feb 9, 2025at DETDET 112 − 102
Jan 3, 2025at DETDET 98 − 94
Nov 21, 2024at CHACHA 123 − 121
Nov 6, 2024at CHACHA 108 − 107
Mar 11, 2024at DETDET 114 − 97
Jan 24, 2024at DETDET 113 − 106
Oct 27, 2023at CHADET 111 − 99
Mar 9, 2023at DETCHA 113 − 103
Feb 27, 2023at CHACHA 117 − 106

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Feb 6vs NY118 − 80W
Feb 5vs WSH117 − 126L
Feb 3vs DEN124 − 121W
Feb 1vs BKN130 − 77W
Jan 30at GS131 − 124W
Jan 29at PHX96 − 114L
Jan 27at DEN109 − 107W
Jan 25vs SAC139 − 116W
Jan 23vs HOU104 − 111L
Jan 21at NO112 − 104W

CHA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W
Jan 24vs WSH119 − 115W
Jan 22at ORL124 − 97W
Jan 21vs CLE87 − 94L