bayesRatings

Warriors at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 6:30 PM CT · FedExForum · Final GS 133 – MEM 112
← NBA / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS34402237133
MEM31222336112
Team box
GS·MEM
49-92
field goals
41-84
19-46
3-pointers
17-41
16-19
free throws
13-18
48
rebounds
34
37
assists
30
16
turnovers
16
58
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
GG JacksonMEM262482
Ty JeromeMEM242235
Will RichardGS302156
Brandin PodziemskiGS311986
Gary Payton IIGS281954
Gui SantosGS261734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +32
GS +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 1 · GS 32lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 56%, MEM 44% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
GS by 2.1
Expected score
GS 117.1 – 115.0 MEM
Expected total
232.1
WarriorsThe matchupGrizzlies
−127Our fair odds+127
117.1Expected points115.0
+0.22Power rating−0.20
115.5Points / game115.5
113.9Allowed / game117.8
46.1FG%46.0
35.93P%34.9
42.8Rebounds / game44.7
30−28Season record21−35
4−6Last 103−7
De'Anthony Melton · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · LJ Cryer
Nate WilliamsOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Ja Morant · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · MEM chance
Our model fair56.0%44.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−12756%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12744%————
SpreadGS by 2.1
GSGolden State Warriors−2.1our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.1
Over232.1our total————
Under232.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.1 expected
Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%
← GS wins byMEM wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more46%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more31%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.1 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·MEM
Feb 24 at NO
last game
Feb 23 vs SAC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 25, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSNate Williams · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · right knee; posteriorOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; injury managementOut
MEMZach Edey · capsule sprain left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMKyle Anderson · right knee; patellar tendinitisQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
GS·MEM
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
115.5
points / game
115.5
113.9
points allowed / game
117.8
30−28
season record
21−35
19−11
home record
12−16
11−17
away record
9−19
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
46.1
FG%
46.0
35.9
3P%
34.9
42.8
rebounds / game
44.7
29.1
assists / game
28.8
15.7
turnovers / game
15.2
43.7
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

GS · MEM · 113 days
Golden State WarriorsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 3−7
Feb 9at GSGS 114 − 113
Oct 27, 2025at GSGS 131 − 118
Apr 1, 2025at MEMGS 134 − 125
Jan 4, 2025at GSGS 121 − 113
Dec 19, 2024at MEMMEM 144 − 93
Nov 15, 2024at GSGS 123 − 118
Mar 20, 2024at GSGS 137 − 116
Feb 2, 2024at MEMGS 121 − 101
Jan 15, 2024at MEMMEM 116 − 107
Mar 18, 2023at MEMMEM 133 − 119

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 24at NO109 − 113L
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Feb 23vs SAC114 − 123L
Feb 21at MIA120 − 136L
Feb 20vs UTAH123 − 114W
Feb 11at DEN116 − 122L
Feb 9at GS113 − 114L
Feb 7at POR115 − 122L
Feb 6at POR115 − 135L
Feb 4at SAC129 − 125W
Feb 2vs MIN137 − 128W
Jan 31vs MIN114 − 131L