bayesRatings

Celtics at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Feb 19 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final BOS 121 – GS 110
← NBA / Feb 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS36382819121
GS32192237110
Team box
BOS·GS
49-95
field goals
43-96
17-40
3-pointers
20-55
6-7
free throws
4-8
54
rebounds
40
36
assists
30
13
turnovers
9
58
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Payton PritchardBOS332667
Jaylen BrownBOS37231513
De'Anthony MeltonGS251831
Gui SantosGS321762
Will RichardGS241752
Sam HauserBOS281635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +34
BOS +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · BOS 34lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 59%, GS 41% · Updated Feb 19

Expected margin
BOS by 3.4
Expected score
BOS 111.7 – 108.2 GS
Expected total
219.9
CelticsThe matchupWarriors
−141Our fair odds+141
111.7Expected points108.2
+0.76Power rating+0.21
115.3Points / game115.5
108.4Allowed / game113.7
46.8FG%46.1
36.23P%36.0
45.4Rebounds / game42.5
35−19Season record29−26
7−3Last 104−6
Jayson TatumOutJimmy Butler III · LJ Cryer
Seth Curry · Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · GS chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−14159%————
GSGolden State Warriors+14141%————
SpreadBOS by 3.4
BOSBoston Celtics−3.4our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.9
Over219.9our total————
Under219.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 3.4 expected
Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%
← BOS wins byGS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more49%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more34%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.9 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.570%
Total over 219.550%
Total over 229.531%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·GS
Feb 11 vs CHI
last game
Feb 11 vs SA
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 19, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · left achilles tendon; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
BOS·GS
+0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
115.3
points / game
115.5
108.4
points allowed / game
113.7
35−19
season record
29−26
18−9
home record
18−10
17−10
away record
11−16
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
46.8
FG%
46.1
36.2
3P%
36.0
45.4
rebounds / game
42.5
23.9
assists / game
28.9
12.1
turnovers / game
15.6
44.4
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

BOS · GS · 107 days
Boston CelticsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Jan 20, 2025at GSBOS 125 − 85
Nov 6, 2024at BOSGS 118 − 112
Mar 3, 2024at BOSBOS 140 − 88
Dec 19, 2023at GSGS 132 − 126
Jan 19, 2023at BOSBOS 121 − 118
Dec 10, 2022at GSGS 123 − 107
Jun 16, 2022at BOSGS 103 − 90post
Jun 13, 2022at GSGS 104 − 94post
Jun 10, 2022at BOSGS 107 − 97post
Jun 8, 2022at BOSBOS 116 − 100post

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Feb 11vs CHI124 − 105W
Feb 8vs NY89 − 111L
Feb 6vs MIA98 − 96W
Feb 4at HOU114 − 93W
Feb 3at DAL110 − 100W
Feb 1vs MIL107 − 79W
Jan 30vs SAC112 − 93W
Jan 28vs ATL106 − 117L
Jan 26vs POR102 − 94W
Jan 24at CHI111 − 114L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L