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Spurs at Warriors

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final SA 126 – GS 113
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA31323132126
GS38292719113
Team box
SA·GS
46-93
field goals
42-91
10-39
3-pointers
16-47
24-28
free throws
13-17
44
rebounds
40
35
assists
37
10
turnovers
12
60
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA322708
Victor WembanyamaSA332694
Keldon JohnsonSA292162
Draymond GreenGS3017128
De'Anthony MeltonGS251737
Moses MoodyGS351742

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +16
SA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 16 · SA 13lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 46%, GS 54% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
GS by 1.7
Expected score
GS 114.5 – 112.9 SA
Expected total
227.4
SpursThe matchupWarriors
+117Our fair odds−117
112.9Expected points114.5
+0.29Power rating+0.24
117.9Points / game115.6
112.4Allowed / game113.5
47.8FG%46.1
34.93P%36.0
46.5Rebounds / game42.6
37−17Season record29−25
7−3Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Harrison Ingram
Jeremy Sochan · Lindy Waters III
Stanley UmudeOut (5 each)Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
LJ Cryer · Seth Curry
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · GS chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+11746%————
GSGolden State Warriors−11754%————
SpreadGS by 1.7
SASan Antonio Spurs+1.7our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.4
Over227.4our total————
Under227.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 1.7 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%
← SA wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more45%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more31%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.4 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·GS
Feb 10 at LAL
last game
Feb 9 vs MEM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · not with teamOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · pelvic; contusionQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; tearOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · left hamstring; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left gluteal; contusionQuestionable
GSWill Richard · right knee; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
SA·GS
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
117.9
points / game
115.6
112.4
points allowed / game
113.5
37−17
season record
29−25
19−6
home record
18−9
18−11
away record
11−16
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
47.8
FG%
46.1
34.9
3P%
36.0
46.5
rebounds / game
42.6
26.5
assists / game
28.7
13.7
turnovers / game
15.7
50.9
points in paint / game
43.4

Rating Trend

SA · GS · 105 days
San Antonio SpursGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 7−3
Nov 14, 2025at SAGS 109 − 108
Nov 12, 2025at SAGS 125 − 120
Apr 9, 2025at GSSA 114 − 111
Mar 30, 2025at SAGS 148 − 106
Nov 23, 2024at SASA 104 − 94
Mar 31, 2024at SAGS 117 − 113
Mar 11, 2024at SAGS 112 − 102
Mar 9, 2024at GSSA 126 − 113
Nov 24, 2023at GSGS 118 − 112
Mar 31, 2023at GSGS 130 − 115

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L
Jan 22at UTAH126 − 109W
Jan 20at HOU106 − 111L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W
Jan 22at DAL115 − 123L
Jan 20vs TOR127 − 145L