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Nuggets at Warriors

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 2:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final DEN 117 – GS 128
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN27403416117
GS39371933128
Team box
DEN·GS
42-91
field goals
48-94
8-31
3-pointers
21-52
25-29
free throws
11-12
44
rebounds
44
25
assists
42
17
turnovers
18
60
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN36352012
Moses MoodyGS352375
Al HorfordGS272217
Jamal MurrayDEN332122
De'Anthony MeltonGS252042
Brandin PodziemskiGS3718159

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +14
DEN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 14 · DEN 8lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 49%, GS 51% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
GS by 0.2
Expected score
GS 116.2 – 116.0 DEN
Expected total
232.2
NuggetsThe matchupWarriors
+104Our fair odds−104
116.0Expected points116.2
+0.37Power rating+0.21
120.9Points / game115.4
116.1Allowed / game113.8
49.7FG%46.1
39.63P%36.0
43.0Rebounds / game42.5
36−21Season record29−27
5−5Last 104−6
Aaron Gordon · Jalen Pickett
Peyton Watson · Tamar BatesOutDraymond Green · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · GS chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+10449%————
GSGolden State Warriors−10451%————
SpreadGS by 0.2
DENDenver Nuggets+0.2our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.2 expected
Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%
← DEN wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more27%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CAl Horfordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·GS
Feb 20 at POR
last game
Feb 19 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 22, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENJalen Pickett · right knee; sorenessOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSDraymond Green · left low back; sorenessOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSNate Williams · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
DEN·GS
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
120.9
points / game
115.4
116.1
points allowed / game
113.8
36−21
season record
29−27
15−11
home record
18−11
21−10
away record
11−16
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
49.7
FG%
46.1
39.6
3P%
36.0
43.0
rebounds / game
42.5
28.2
assists / game
28.9
12.9
turnovers / game
15.5
48.6
points in paint / game
43.4

Rating Trend

DEN · GS · 110 days
Denver NuggetsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 2−8
Nov 7, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 104
Oct 23, 2025at GSGS 137 − 131
Apr 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 104
Mar 17, 2025at GSDEN 114 − 105
Dec 3, 2024at DENDEN 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2024at GSDEN 119 − 103
Jan 4, 2024at GSDEN 130 − 127
Dec 25, 2023at DENDEN 120 − 114
Nov 8, 2023at DENDEN 108 − 105
Apr 2, 2023at DENDEN 112 − 110

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L
Jan 25at MIN111 − 85W