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Nuggets at Clippers

NBA · Thursday, Feb 19 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final DEN 114 – LAC 115
← NBA / Feb 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN24282537114
LAC25203337115
Team box
DEN·LAC
39-86
field goals
41-87
13-40
3-pointers
8-33
23-31
free throws
25-30
45
rebounds
45
29
assists
27
17
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bennedict MathurinLAC343854
Kawhi LeonardLAC332343
Nikola JokicDEN3622176
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC342231
Jamal MurrayDEN352088
Bruce BrownDEN251956

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +10
DEN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 5 · DEN 10lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 50%, LAC 50% · Updated Feb 19

Expected margin
DEN by 0.1
Expected score
DEN 114.2 – 114.1 LAC
Expected total
228.3
NuggetsThe matchupClippers
+100Our fair odds−100
114.2Expected points114.1
+0.37Power rating+0.18
120.4Points / game111.9
116.3Allowed / game112.3
49.6FG%47.9
39.53P%36.5
42.7Rebounds / game40.6
35−20Season record26−28
5−5Last 106−4
Aaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Tamar BatesOutBradley Beal · Darius Garland
TyTy Washington Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · LAC chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+10050%————
LACLA Clippers−10050%————
SpreadDEN by 0.1
DENDenver Nuggets−0.1our margin————
LACLA Clippers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.3
Over228.3our total————
Under228.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 0.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%
← DEN wins byLAC wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more40%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more27%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.3 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
LA Clippers
GKris Dunnstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·LAC
Feb 11 vs MEM
last game
Feb 11 at HOU
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 19, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJalen Pickett · right knee; sorenessProbable
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACDarius Garland · left toe; injury managementOut
LACTyTy Washington Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
DEN·LAC
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
120.4
points / game
111.9
116.3
points allowed / game
112.3
35−20
season record
26−28
15−11
home record
13−11
20−9
away record
13−17
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
49.6
FG%
47.9
39.5
3P%
36.5
42.7
rebounds / game
40.6
28.0
assists / game
23.5
12.7
turnovers / game
14.8
48.5
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

DEN · LAC · 107 days
Denver NuggetsLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 3−7
Jan 30at DENDEN 122 − 109
Nov 12, 2025at LACDEN 130 − 116
May 3, 2025at DENDEN 120 − 101post
May 1, 2025at LACLAC 111 − 105post
Apr 29, 2025at DENDEN 131 − 115post
Apr 26, 2025at LACDEN 101 − 99post
Apr 24, 2025at LACLAC 117 − 83post
Apr 21, 2025at DENLAC 105 − 102post
Apr 19, 2025at DENDEN 112 − 110post
Jan 8, 2025at DENDEN 126 − 103

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L
Jan 23at MIL102 − 100W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 11at HOU105 − 102W
Feb 10at HOU95 − 102L
Feb 8at MIN115 − 96W
Feb 6at SAC114 − 111W
Feb 4vs CLE91 − 124L
Feb 2vs PHI113 − 128L
Feb 1at PHX117 − 93W
Jan 30at DEN109 − 122L
Jan 27at UTAH115 − 103W
Jan 25vs BKN126 − 89W