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Nuggets at Trail Blazers

NBA · Friday, Feb 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final DEN 157 – POR 103
← NBA / Feb 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN41414332157
POR27263218103
Team box
DEN·POR
55-96
field goals
35-86
21-41
3-pointers
15-47
26-32
free throws
18-29
60
rebounds
36
41
assists
25
16
turnovers
18
54
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN293297
Jamal MurrayDEN252566
Julian StrawtherDEN291964
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN191923
Jrue HolidayPOR251922
Deni AvdijaPOR3015813

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +55
DEN +55
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 8 · DEN 55lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, POR 42% · Updated Feb 20

Expected margin
DEN by 3.9
Expected score
DEN 120.5 – 116.6 POR
Expected total
237.1
NuggetsThe matchupTrail Blazers
−137Our fair odds+137
120.5Expected points116.6
+0.37Power rating−0.14
120.2Points / game116.3
116.3Allowed / game118.3
49.5FG%45.2
39.43P%34.1
42.7Rebounds / game46.0
35−21Season record27−29
4−6Last 104−6
Aaron Gordon · Curtis Jones
Peyton Watson · Tamar BatesOutDamian Lillard · Shaedon Sharpe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · POR chance
Our model fair57.8%42.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−13758%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+13742%————
SpreadDEN by 3.9
DENDenver Nuggets−3.9our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.1
Over237.1our total————
Under237.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.9 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPOR wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.1 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·POR
Feb 19 at LAC
last game
Feb 12 at UTAH
0 days
days of rest
7 days
yes
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · right hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
DENJalen Pickett · right knee; sorenessProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left calf; strainOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainQuestionable
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
DEN·POR
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
120.2
points / game
116.3
116.3
points allowed / game
118.3
35−21
season record
27−29
15−11
home record
16−13
20−10
away record
11−16
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
49.5
FG%
45.2
39.4
3P%
34.1
42.7
rebounds / game
46.0
28.0
assists / game
24.7
12.8
turnovers / game
17.3
48.5
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

DEN · POR · 108 days
Denver NuggetsPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 3−7
Oct 31, 2025at PORPOR 109 − 107
Mar 21, 2025at PORPOR 128 − 109
Feb 12, 2025at DENDEN 132 − 121
Feb 10, 2025at DENDEN 146 − 117
Dec 19, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 124
Mar 23, 2024at PORDEN 114 − 111
Feb 23, 2024at PORDEN 127 − 112
Feb 4, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 103
Feb 2, 2024at DENDEN 120 − 108
Jan 17, 2023at DENDEN 122 − 113

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W
Feb 9vs CLE117 − 119L
Feb 7at CHI136 − 120W
Feb 4at NY127 − 134L
Feb 3at DET121 − 124L
Feb 1vs OKC111 − 121L
Jan 30vs LAC122 − 109W
Jan 29vs BKN107 − 103W
Jan 27vs DET107 − 109L

POR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 12at UTAH135 − 119W
Feb 11at MIN109 − 133L
Feb 9vs PHI135 − 118W
Feb 7vs MEM122 − 115W
Feb 6vs MEM135 − 115W
Feb 3vs PHX125 − 130L
Feb 1vs CLE111 − 130L
Jan 30at NY97 − 127L
Jan 27at WSH111 − 115L
Jan 26at BOS94 − 102L