bayesRatings

76ers at Trail Blazers

NBA · Monday, Feb 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final PHI 118 – POR 135
← NBA / Feb 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI31342231118
POR29354922135
Team box
PHI·POR
38-81
field goals
47-97
11-30
3-pointers
22-54
31-36
free throws
19-25
33
rebounds
51
23
assists
36
14
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI323014
Toumani CamaraPOR273031
Deni AvdijaPOR2726108
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI361941
Donovan ClinganPOR281573
Jerami GrantPOR251542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +31
PHI +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 31 · PHI 10lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 46%, POR 54% · Updated Feb 9

Expected margin
POR by 0.6
Expected score
POR 115.5 – 114.9 PHI
Expected total
230.3
76ersThe matchupTrail Blazers
+118Our fair odds−118
114.9Expected points115.5
−0.14Power rating−0.19
116.7Points / game115.8
115.1Allowed / game118.0
46.2FG%45.1
35.43P%33.8
43.6Rebounds / game45.8
30−22Season record25−28
7−3Last 104−6
Paul GeorgeOutDamian Lillard · Kris Murray
Matisse Thybulle · Shaedon Sharpe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · POR chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+11846%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−11854%————
SpreadPOR by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.6our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.3
Over230.3our total————
Under230.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%
← PHI wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more42%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more28%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,537 past NBA games.

Total range

230.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,537 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FTrendon Watfordstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·POR
Feb 7 at PHX
last game
Feb 7 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 9, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIPaul George · league suspensionOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHIQuentin Grimes · n/a; illnessQuestionable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left calf; sorenessOut
PORDeni Avdija · recovery - brace low back; strainQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
PHI·POR
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
116.7
points / game
115.8
115.1
points allowed / game
118.0
30−22
season record
25−28
15−13
home record
15−13
15−9
away record
10−15
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
46.2
FG%
45.1
35.4
3P%
33.8
43.6
rebounds / game
45.8
24.9
assists / game
24.5
13.8
turnovers / game
17.1
48.5
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

PHI · POR · 103 days
Philadelphia 76ersPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · POR 3−5
Mar 3, 2025at PHIPOR 119 − 102
Dec 30, 2024at PORPHI 125 − 103
Jan 29, 2024at PORPOR 130 − 104
Oct 29, 2023at PHIPHI 126 − 98
Mar 10, 2023at PHIPHI 120 − 119
Jan 19, 2023at PORPHI 105 − 95
Nov 20, 2021at PORPOR 118 − 111
Nov 1, 2021at PHIPHI 113 − 103

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Feb 7at PHX109 − 103W
Feb 5at LAL115 − 119L
Feb 3at GS113 − 94W
Feb 2at LAC128 − 113W
Jan 31vs NO124 − 114W
Jan 29vs SAC113 − 111W
Jan 27vs MIL139 − 122W
Jan 26at CHA93 − 130L
Jan 24vs NY109 − 112L
Jan 22vs HOU128 − 122W

POR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Feb 7vs MEM122 − 115W
Feb 6vs MEM135 − 115W
Feb 3vs PHX125 − 130L
Feb 1vs CLE111 − 130L
Jan 30at NY97 − 127L
Jan 27at WSH111 − 115L
Jan 26at BOS94 − 102L
Jan 23vs TOR98 − 110L
Jan 22vs MIA127 − 110W
Jan 18at SAC117 − 110W