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Warriors at Pelicans

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 24 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final GS 109 – NO 113
← NBA / Feb 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS19203337109
NO31153136113
Team box
GS·NO
40-97
field goals
43-101
11-45
3-pointers
10-40
18-23
free throws
17-23
59
rebounds
53
26
assists
20
21
turnovers
17
58
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Anthony MeltonGS282843
Zion WilliamsonNO332660
Moses MoodyGS342453
Saddiq BeyNO311861
Brandin PodziemskiGS3216153
Gui SantosGS3915124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 14 · GS 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 67%, NO 33% · Updated Feb 24

Expected margin
GS by 6.3
Expected score
GS 119.1 – 112.8 NO
Expected total
231.8
WarriorsThe matchupPelicans
−203Our fair odds+203
119.1Expected points112.8
+0.22Power rating−0.67
115.6Points / game114.8
113.9Allowed / game120.6
46.2FG%46.4
36.13P%34.4
42.5Rebounds / game43.6
30−27Season record16−42
4−6Last 104−6
Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · LJ Cryer
Nate WilliamsOut (5 each)Hunter Dickinson · Micah Peavy
Trey Alexander · Trey Murphy III
Yves Missi

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · NO chance
Our model fair67.0%33.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−20367%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20333%————
SpreadGS by 6.3
GSGolden State Warriors−6.3our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.8
Over231.8our total————
Under231.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.3 expected
Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%
← GS wins byNO wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more58%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.8 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CDeAndre Jordanstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·NO
Feb 22 vs DEN
last game
Feb 21 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 24, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injuryOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSNate Williams · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDraymond Green · left low back; injury managementProbable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOMicah Peavy · right great toe; sprainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right shoulder; contusionOut
NOYves Missi · left calf; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
GS·NO
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.67
115.6
points / game
114.8
113.9
points allowed / game
120.6
30−27
season record
16−42
19−11
home record
10−21
11−16
away record
6−21
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
46.2
FG%
46.4
36.1
3P%
34.4
42.5
rebounds / game
43.6
29.1
assists / game
25.0
15.6
turnovers / game
14.1
43.4
points in paint / game
57.4

Rating Trend

GS · NO · 112 days
Golden State WarriorsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 2−8
Nov 29, 2025at GSGS 104 − 96
Nov 16, 2025at NOGS 124 − 106
Mar 28, 2025at NOGS 111 − 95
Nov 22, 2024at NOGS 112 − 108
Oct 30, 2024at GSGS 104 − 89
Oct 29, 2024at GSGS 124 − 106
Apr 12, 2024at GSNO 114 − 109
Jan 10, 2024at GSNO 141 − 105
Oct 30, 2023at NOGS 130 − 102
Mar 28, 2023at GSGS 120 − 109

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 22vs DEN128 − 117W
Feb 19vs BOS110 − 121L
Feb 11vs SA113 − 126L
Feb 9vs MEM114 − 113W
Feb 7at LAL99 − 105L
Feb 5at PHX101 − 97W
Feb 3vs PHI94 − 113L
Jan 30vs DET124 − 131L
Jan 28at UTAH140 − 124W
Jan 26at MIN83 − 108L

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 21vs PHI126 − 111W
Feb 20vs MIL118 − 139L
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W
Feb 4at MIL137 − 141L
Feb 2at CHA95 − 102L
Jan 31at PHI114 − 124L
Jan 30vs MEM114 − 106W
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L