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Bucks at Pelicans

NBA · Friday, Feb 20 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final MIL 139 – NO 118
← NBA / Feb 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL33383236139
NO38273122118
Team box
MIL·NO
55-92
field goals
47-87
15-36
3-pointers
4-25
14-18
free throws
20-28
37
rebounds
37
28
assists
22
15
turnovers
14
60
points in paint
84
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO303222
Ryan RollinsMIL352726
Cam ThomasMIL212731
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL322527
Saddiq BeyNO362263
Derik QueenNO281894

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +25
MIL +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 6 · MIL 25lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, NO 41% · Updated Feb 20

Expected margin
MIL by 2.5
Expected score
MIL 116.7 – 114.2 NO
Expected total
230.8
BucksThe matchupPelicans
−141Our fair odds+141
116.7Expected points114.2
−0.12Power rating−0.66
111.8Points / game114.6
115.2Allowed / game120.4
48.1FG%46.2
39.33P%34.4
41.2Rebounds / game43.6
23−30Season record15−41
5−5Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Myles Turner · Taurean PrinceOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Micah Peavy · Trey Alexander
Trey Murphy III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · NO chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−14159%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+14141%————
SpreadMIL by 2.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.8
Over230.8our total————
Under230.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%
← MIL wins byNO wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more47%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more32%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.8 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CJericho Simsstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·NO
Feb 12 at OKC
last game
Feb 11 vs MIA
7 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILMyles Turner · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOMicah Peavy · right great toe; sprainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right shoulder; contusionOut
NOYves Missi · left calf; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 53+ games
MIL·NO
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.66
111.8
points / game
114.6
115.2
points allowed / game
120.4
23−30
season record
15−41
12−12
home record
9−20
11−18
away record
6−21
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
48.1
FG%
46.2
39.3
3P%
34.4
41.2
rebounds / game
43.6
26.1
assists / game
25.0
14.5
turnovers / game
14.1
44.3
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

MIL · NO · 108 days
Milwaukee BucksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 2−7
Feb 4at MILMIL 141 − 137
Apr 10, 2025at MILMIL 136 − 111
Apr 6, 2025at NOMIL 111 − 107
Mar 28, 2024at NONO 107 − 100
Jan 27, 2024at MILMIL 141 − 117
Jan 29, 2023at MILMIL 135 − 110
Dec 19, 2022at NOMIL 128 − 119
Jan 1, 2022at MILMIL 136 − 113
Dec 17, 2021at NONO 116 − 112

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Feb 11vs MIA111 − 123L
Feb 9vs SAC120 − 94W
Feb 6at MIN119 − 115W
Feb 4at MIL137 − 141L
Feb 2at CHA95 − 102L
Jan 31at PHI114 − 124L
Jan 30vs MEM114 − 106W
Jan 27at OKC95 − 104L
Jan 25at SA104 − 95W
Jan 23at MEM133 − 127W