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Bucks at Magic

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final MIL 116 – ORL 108
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL20323628116
ORL24273225108
Team box
MIL·ORL
39-81
field goals
35-82
14-36
3-pointers
20-47
24-24
free throws
18-21
47
rebounds
30
22
assists
31
16
turnovers
9
38
points in paint
26
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cam ThomasMIL253442
Desmond BaneORL393125
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL39181011
Jericho SimsMIL3617112
Paolo BancheroORL391742
Ousmane DiengMIL231730

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +8
MIL +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 8 · MIL 8lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 40%, ORL 60% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
ORL by 4.1
Expected score
ORL 112.6 – 108.5 MIL
Expected total
221.2
BucksThe matchupMagic
+148Our fair odds−148
108.5Expected points112.6
−0.19Power rating+0.00
111.7Points / game115.2
115.8Allowed / game115.2
48.1FG%46.4
39.33P%33.6
40.9Rebounds / game43.5
21−30Season record28−24
4−6Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean PrinceOutColin Castleton · Jett Howard

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ORL chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+14840%————
ORLOrlando Magic−14860%————
SpreadORL by 4.1
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.1our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.2
Over221.2our total————
Under221.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 4.1 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%
← MIL wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more51%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more36%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.2 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ORL
Feb 9 at ORL
last game
Feb 9 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILPete Nance · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
MILRyan Rollins · right foot; plantar fasciitisQuestionable
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJett Howard · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
MIL·ORL
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
111.7
points / game
115.2
115.8
points allowed / game
115.2
21−30
season record
28−24
12−12
home record
18−9
9−18
away record
10−15
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
48.1
FG%
46.4
39.3
3P%
33.6
40.9
rebounds / game
43.5
26.2
assists / game
26.3
14.5
turnovers / game
14.0
44.4
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

MIL · ORL · 105 days
Milwaukee BucksOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Feb 9at ORLORL 118 − 99
Mar 8, 2025at MILORL 111 − 109
Jan 15, 2025at MILMIL 122 − 93
Jan 10, 2025at ORLMIL 109 − 106
Dec 10, 2024at MILMIL 114 − 109
Apr 14, 2024at ORLORL 113 − 88
Apr 10, 2024at MILMIL 117 − 99
Dec 21, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 114
Nov 11, 2023at ORLORL 112 − 97
Mar 7, 2023at ORLMIL 134 − 123

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L
Jan 19at ATL112 − 110W

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Feb 9vs MIL118 − 99W
Feb 7vs UTAH120 − 117W
Feb 5vs BKN118 − 98W
Feb 3at OKC92 − 128L
Feb 1at SA103 − 112L
Jan 30vs TOR130 − 120W
Jan 28at MIA133 − 124W
Jan 26at CLE98 − 114L
Jan 24vs CLE105 − 119L
Jan 22vs CHA97 − 124L