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Bucks at Thunder

NBA · Thursday, Feb 12 · 6:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final MIL 110 – OKC 93
← NBA / Feb 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL30372221110
OKC2530182093
Team box
MIL·OKC
44-95
field goals
31-83
17-42
3-pointers
15-45
5-7
free throws
16-20
49
rebounds
47
25
assists
22
11
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ousmane DiengMIL3619116
Isaiah JoeOKC291742
AJ GreenMIL381723
Chet HolmgrenOKC2716134
Bobby PortisMIL2915123
Kyle KuzmaMIL291442

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +24
MIL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 3 · MIL 24lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 18%, OKC 82% · Updated Feb 12

Expected margin
OKC by 14.5
Expected score
OKC 119.2 – 104.7 MIL
Expected total
223.8
BucksThe matchupThunder
+467Our fair odds−467
104.7Expected points119.2
−0.19Power rating+1.17
111.8Points / game120.2
115.6Allowed / game108.0
48.1FG%49.1
39.23P%36.3
41.1Rebounds / game43.6
22−30Season record42−13
4−6Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean PrinceOutAjay Mitchell · Branden Carlson
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · OKC chance
Our model fair17.6%82.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+46718%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−46782%————
SpreadOKC by 14.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks+14.5our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−14.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.8
Over223.8our total————
Under223.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 53 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 52 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 51 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← MIL wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more77%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more48%
Within 5 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamsstarted
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·OKC
Feb 11 at ORL
last game
Feb 11 at PHX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 12, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILKyle Kuzma · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
MILRyan Rollins · right foot; plantar fasciitisQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; spasmsOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; injury managementOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
MIL·OKC
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+1.17
111.8
points / game
120.2
115.6
points allowed / game
108.0
22−30
season record
42−13
12−12
home record
22−6
10−18
away record
20−7
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
48.1
FG%
49.1
39.2
3P%
36.3
41.1
rebounds / game
43.6
26.1
assists / game
25.6
14.6
turnovers / game
12.4
44.3
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

MIL · OKC · 106 days
Milwaukee BucksOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 4−6
Jan 21at MILOKC 122 − 102
Mar 16, 2025at MILOKC 121 − 105
Feb 3, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 96
Dec 17, 2024at OKCMIL 97 − 81
Apr 12, 2024at OKCOKC 125 − 107
Mar 24, 2024at MILMIL 118 − 93
Nov 9, 2022at OKCMIL 136 − 132
Nov 5, 2022at MILMIL 108 − 94
Mar 8, 2022at OKCMIL 142 − 115
Nov 19, 2021at MILMIL 96 − 89

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L
Jan 23vs DEN100 − 102L
Jan 21vs OKC102 − 122L

OKC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L