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Kings at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Feb 26 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final SAC 130 – DAL 121
← NBA / Feb 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC42263230130
DAL28283233121
Team box
SAC·DAL
51-101
field goals
45-81
8-26
3-pointers
10-23
20-25
free throws
21-34
46
rebounds
42
29
assists
23
5
turnovers
18
76
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Naji MarshallDAL4236106
Precious AchiuwaSAC3329124
Maxime RaynaudSAC322260
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC261940
Khris MiddletonDAL331754
Brandon WilliamsDAL271634

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +18
SAC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 1 · SAC 18lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 36%, DAL 64% · Updated Feb 26

Expected margin
DAL by 6.0
Expected score
DAL 119.0 – 113.0 SAC
Expected total
232.1
KingsThe matchupMavericks
+178Our fair odds−178
113.0Expected points119.0
−0.71Power rating−0.30
110.1Points / game114.4
121.1Allowed / game117.6
46.1FG%47.4
33.83P%33.8
41.4Rebounds / game44.7
13−47Season record21−36
1−9Last 102−8
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOutCooper Flagg · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · P.J. Washington

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair36.0%64.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+17836%————
DALDallas Mavericks−17864%————
SpreadDAL by 6.0
SACSacramento Kings+6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.1
Over232.1our total————
Under232.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 6.0 expected
Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%
← SAC wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more56%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more41%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.1 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDevin Carterstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FCaleb Martinstarted
FMarvin Bagley IIIstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·DAL
Feb 25 at HOU
last game
Feb 24 at BKN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 26, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right thigh; contusionOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
SACMalik Monk · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALCooper Flagg · left midfoot; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALP.J. Washington · left ankle; sprainOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementDoubtful
DALRyan Nembhard · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALKhris Middleton · right shoulder; stingerProbable
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayProbable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
SAC·DAL
−0.71
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
110.1
points / game
114.4
121.1
points allowed / game
117.6
13−47
season record
21−36
9−20
home record
14−16
4−27
away record
7−20
L1
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
2−8
46.1
FG%
47.4
33.8
3P%
33.8
41.4
rebounds / game
44.7
25.1
assists / game
25.1
14.5
turnovers / game
14.6
48.6
points in paint / game
54.1

Rating Trend

SAC · DAL · 114 days
Sacramento KingsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Jan 6at SACDAL 100 − 98
Dec 27, 2025at SACSAC 113 − 107
Mar 3, 2025at DALSAC 122 − 98
Feb 10, 2025at DALSAC 129 − 128
Dec 30, 2024at SACSAC 110 − 100
Mar 29, 2024at SACDAL 107 − 103
Mar 26, 2024at SACDAL 132 − 96
Jan 27, 2024at DALSAC 120 − 115
Nov 19, 2023at DALSAC 129 − 113
Apr 5, 2023at DALDAL 123 − 119

SAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Feb 25at HOU97 − 128L
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L
Feb 9at NO94 − 120L
Feb 7vs CLE126 − 132L
Feb 6vs LAC111 − 114L
Feb 4vs MEM125 − 129L
Feb 1at WSH112 − 116L

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Feb 24at BKN123 − 114W
Feb 22at IND134 − 130W
Feb 20at MIN111 − 122L
Feb 12at LAL104 − 124L
Feb 10at PHX111 − 120L
Feb 7at SA125 − 138L
Feb 5vs SA123 − 135L
Feb 3vs BOS100 − 110L
Jan 31at HOU107 − 111L
Jan 29vs CHA121 − 123L