bayesRatings

Kings at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 25 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final SAC 97 – HOU 128
← NBA / Feb 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC2228262197
HOU33443120128
Team box
SAC·HOU
37-93
field goals
47-86
7-32
3-pointers
17-39
16-20
free throws
17-19
43
rebounds
44
22
assists
29
12
turnovers
13
40
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Reed SheppardHOU322842
Alperen SengunHOU32261311
Russell WestbrookSAC252253
Kevin DurantHOU282145
DeMar DeRozanSAC241517
Nique CliffordSAC291521

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +36
SAC +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 36 · SAC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 21%, HOU 79% · Updated Feb 25

Expected margin
HOU by 12.8
Expected score
HOU 118.2 – 105.3 SAC
Expected total
223.5
KingsThe matchupRockets
+371Our fair odds−371
105.3Expected points118.2
−0.71Power rating+0.45
110.3Points / game114.5
121.0Allowed / game109.4
46.3FG%47.6
34.03P%37.3
41.4Rebounds / game48.5
13−46Season record35−21
1−9Last 106−4
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Zach LaVineOut (5 each)Amen Thompson · Fred VanVleet
Jae'Sean Tate · Steven Adams
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · HOU chance
Our model fair21.2%78.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+37121%————
HOUHouston Rockets−37179%————
SpreadHOU by 12.8
SACSacramento Kings+12.8our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−12.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.5
Over223.5our total————
Under223.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 12.8 expected
Sacramento Kings by 53 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 53 points: <1%
← SAC wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more73%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more59%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more44%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.5 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Houston Rockets
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·HOU
Feb 23 at MEM
last game
Feb 23 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 24, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
SACDevin Carter · low back; sorenessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUAmen Thompson · left quadricep; tendinitisOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
SAC·HOU
−0.71
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
110.3
points / game
114.5
121.0
points allowed / game
109.4
13−46
season record
35−21
9−20
home record
19−7
4−26
away record
16−14
W1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
46.3
FG%
47.6
34.0
3P%
37.3
41.4
rebounds / game
48.5
25.1
assists / game
24.7
14.6
turnovers / game
15.6
48.7
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

SAC · HOU · 113 days
Sacramento KingsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Jan 11at SACSAC 111 − 98
Dec 21, 2025at SACSAC 125 − 124
Dec 3, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 95
Mar 1, 2025at HOUSAC 113 − 103
Jan 16, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 127
Dec 3, 2024at SACSAC 120 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at SACHOU 112 − 104
Nov 6, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 97
Nov 4, 2023at HOUHOU 107 − 89
Feb 8, 2023at HOUSAC 130 − 128

SAC · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Feb 23at MEM123 − 114W
Feb 21at SA122 − 139L
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L
Feb 9at NO94 − 120L
Feb 7vs CLE126 − 132L
Feb 6vs LAC111 − 114L
Feb 4vs MEM125 − 129L
Feb 1at WSH112 − 116L
Jan 30at BOS93 − 112L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 23vs UTAH125 − 105W
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W