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Rockets at Knicks

NBA · Saturday, Feb 21 · 7:30 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final HOU 106 – NY 108
← NBA / Feb 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU21333715106
NY27262233108
Team box
HOU·NY
38-80
field goals
42-85
12-31
3-pointers
10-26
18-23
free throws
14-16
44
rebounds
29
24
assists
26
20
turnovers
12
50
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU383063
Karl-Anthony TownsNY342571
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU362141
Jalen BrunsonNY362036
OG AnunobyNY402021
Alperen SengunHOU311666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +18
HOU +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 13 · HOU 18lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 44%, NY 56% · Updated Feb 21

Expected margin
NY by 2.7
Expected score
NY 111.8 – 109.2 HOU
Expected total
221.0
RocketsThe matchupKnicks
+127Our fair odds−127
109.2Expected points111.8
+0.44Power rating+0.49
114.5Points / game118.0
109.5Allowed / game112.1
47.4FG%47.1
37.23P%37.6
48.5Rebounds / game46.4
34−20Season record36−21
6−4Last 107−3
Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutMiles McBride

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · NY chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+12744%————
NYNew York Knicks−12756%————
SpreadNY by 2.7
HOUHouston Rockets+2.7our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.0
Over221.0our total————
Under221.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 2.7 expected
Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%
← HOU wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more48%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more33%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

221.0 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·NY
Feb 19 at CHA
last game
Feb 19 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 21, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
New York Knicks
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryOut
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYKevin McCullar Jr. · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYPacome Dadiet · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
NYTrey Jemison III · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYTyler Kolek · g league - on assignmentQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
HOU·NY
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
114.5
points / game
118.0
109.5
points allowed / game
112.1
34−20
season record
36−21
18−7
home record
22−8
16−13
away record
14−13
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
47.1
37.2
3P%
37.6
48.5
rebounds / game
46.4
24.6
assists / game
27.1
15.3
turnovers / game
13.5
51.9
points in paint / game
47.4

Rating Trend

HOU · NY · 109 days
Houston RocketsNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NY 6−2
Feb 3, 2025at NYNY 124 − 118
Nov 4, 2024at HOUHOU 109 − 97
Feb 12, 2024at HOUHOU 105 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at NYNY 109 − 94
Mar 27, 2023at NYNY 137 − 115
Dec 31, 2022at HOUNY 108 − 88
Dec 16, 2021at HOUNY 116 − 103
Nov 20, 2021at NYNY 106 − 99

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W
Jan 28vs SA99 − 111L

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Feb 19vs DET111 − 126L
Feb 11at PHI138 − 89W
Feb 10vs IND134 − 137L
Feb 8at BOS111 − 89W
Feb 6at DET80 − 118L
Feb 4vs DEN134 − 127W
Feb 3at WSH132 − 101W
Feb 1vs LAL112 − 100W
Jan 30vs POR127 − 97W
Jan 28at TOR119 − 92W