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Kings at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Feb 21 · 7:00 PM CT · Moody Center · Final SAC 122 – SA 139
← NBA / Feb 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC31342928122
SA35383234139
Team box
SAC·SA
45-96
field goals
52-94
9-32
3-pointers
13-34
23-25
free throws
22-28
35
rebounds
48
33
assists
32
12
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
74
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3028156
DeMar DeRozanSAC352015
Keegan MurraySAC362022
Malik MonkSAC281916
Stephon CastleSA251883
De'Aaron FoxSA271825

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +28
SAC +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 28 · SAC 4lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 23%, SA 77% · Updated Feb 21

Expected margin
SA by 11.0
Expected score
SA 120.8 – 109.8 SAC
Expected total
230.7
KingsThe matchupSpurs
+335Our fair odds−335
109.8Expected points120.8
−0.68Power rating+0.35
109.9Points / game118.1
120.8Allowed / game112.1
46.2FG%47.9
34.13P%34.8
41.4Rebounds / game46.5
12−45Season record39−17
0−10Last 108−2
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Zach LaVineOutDavid Jones Garcia · Lindy Waters III
Mason Plumlee

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · SA chance
Our model fair23.0%77.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+33523%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−33577%————
SpreadSA by 11.0
SACSacramento Kings+11our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−11our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.7
Over230.7our total————
Under230.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 11.0 expected
Sacramento Kings by 53 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 53 points: <1%
← SAC wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more69%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more54%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.7 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·SA
Feb 19 vs ORL
last game
Feb 19 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 21, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; iritisOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left ankle; sprainOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SALindy Waters III · left knee; hyperextensionOut
SAMason Plumlee · return to competition reconditioningOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
SAC·SA
−0.68
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
109.9
points / game
118.1
120.8
points allowed / game
112.1
12−45
season record
39−17
9−20
home record
20−6
3−25
away record
19−11
L15
streak
W7
0−10
last 10
8−2
46.2
FG%
47.9
34.1
3P%
34.8
41.4
rebounds / game
46.5
24.9
assists / game
26.7
14.6
turnovers / game
13.6
48.5
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

SAC · SA · 109 days
Sacramento KingsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 4−6
Nov 16, 2025at SASA 123 − 110
Mar 7, 2025at SACSAC 127 − 109
Dec 6, 2024at SASAC 140 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at SACSA 127 − 125
Nov 11, 2024at SASA 116 − 96
Mar 7, 2024at SACSAC 131 − 129
Feb 22, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 122
Nov 17, 2023at SASAC 129 − 120
Apr 2, 2023at SACSA 142 − 134
Feb 1, 2023at SASAC 119 − 109

SAC · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Feb 19vs ORL94 − 131L
Feb 11at UTAH93 − 121L
Feb 9at NO94 − 120L
Feb 7vs CLE126 − 132L
Feb 6vs LAC111 − 114L
Feb 4vs MEM125 − 129L
Feb 1at WSH112 − 116L
Jan 30at BOS93 − 112L
Jan 29at PHI111 − 113L
Jan 27at NY87 − 103L

SA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Feb 19vs PHX121 − 94W
Feb 11at GS126 − 113W
Feb 10at LAL136 − 108W
Feb 7vs DAL138 − 125W
Feb 5at DAL135 − 123W
Feb 4vs OKC116 − 106W
Feb 1vs ORL112 − 103W
Jan 31at CHA106 − 111L
Jan 28at HOU111 − 99W
Jan 25vs NO95 − 104L