bayesRatings

Jazz at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Feb 23 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final UTAH 105 – HOU 125
← NBA / Feb 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH22252830105
HOU38303225125
Team box
UTAH·HOU
36-98
field goals
49-86
8-44
3-pointers
18-40
25-30
free throws
9-11
36
rebounds
53
23
assists
34
12
turnovers
27
52
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU333190
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH322932
Brice SensabaughUTAH322631
Amen ThompsonHOU292073
Kevin DurantHOU3418512
Isaiah CollierUTAH301713

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +33
UTAH +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 33 · UTAH 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 19%, HOU 81% · Updated Feb 23

Expected margin
HOU by 13.0
Expected score
HOU 123.5 – 110.5 UTAH
Expected total
234.0
JazzThe matchupRockets
+416Our fair odds−416
110.5Expected points123.5
−0.81Power rating+0.44
118.2Points / game114.3
125.9Allowed / game109.4
47.0FG%47.4
35.13P%37.2
44.4Rebounds / game48.4
18−39Season record34−21
3−7Last 106−4
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Walker KesslerOutFred VanVleet · Jae'Sean Tate
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · HOU chance
Our model fair19.4%80.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+41619%————
HOUHouston Rockets−41681%————
SpreadHOU by 13.0
UTAHUtah Jazz+13our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−13our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.0
Over234.0our total————
Under234.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 13.0 expected
Utah Jazz by 53 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 53 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more73%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more59%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more44%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.0 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.567%
Total over 234.548%
Total over 244.529%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GIsaiah Collierstarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·HOU
Feb 20 at MEM
last game
Feb 21 at NY
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 23, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury managementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
UTAHLauri Markkanen · n/a; illnessProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
UTAH·HOU
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
118.2
points / game
114.3
125.9
points allowed / game
109.4
18−39
season record
34−21
11−18
home record
18−7
7−21
away record
16−14
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
47.0
FG%
47.4
35.1
3P%
37.2
44.4
rebounds / game
48.4
30.0
assists / game
24.6
16.0
turnovers / game
15.4
52.3
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

UTAH · HOU · 111 days
Utah JazzHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Dec 1, 2025at UTAHUTAH 133 − 125
Nov 30, 2025at UTAHHOU 129 − 101
Apr 2, 2025at HOUHOU 143 − 105
Mar 27, 2025at UTAHHOU 121 − 110
Feb 22, 2025at UTAHUTAH 124 − 115
Apr 11, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 121
Mar 29, 2024at UTAHHOU 101 − 100
Mar 23, 2024at HOUHOU 147 − 119
Jan 20, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 126
Jan 5, 2023at HOUUTAH 131 − 114

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Feb 20at MEM114 − 123L
Feb 12vs POR119 − 135L
Feb 11vs SAC121 − 93W
Feb 9at MIA115 − 111W
Feb 7at ORL117 − 120L
Feb 5at ATL119 − 121L
Feb 3at IND131 − 122W
Feb 1at TOR100 − 107L
Jan 30vs BKN99 − 109L
Jan 28vs GS124 − 140L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 21at NY106 − 108L
Feb 19at CHA105 − 101W
Feb 11vs LAC102 − 105L
Feb 10vs LAC102 − 95W
Feb 7at OKC112 − 106W
Feb 5vs CHA99 − 109L
Feb 4vs BOS93 − 114L
Feb 2at IND118 − 114W
Jan 31vs DAL111 − 107W
Jan 29at ATL104 − 86W