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Nuggets at Lakers

NBA · Saturday, Mar 14 · 7:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final DEN 125 – LAL 127
← NBA / Mar 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DEN262437317125
LAL342726319127
Team box
DEN·LAL
44-95
field goals
48-93
19-49
3-pointers
14-42
18-22
free throws
17-26
41
rebounds
46
33
assists
31
16
turnovers
17
44
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Austin ReavesLAL463276
Luka DoncicLAL43301113
Aaron GordonDEN352752
Nikola JokicDEN43241614
Marcus SmartLAL352132
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN292013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +17
DEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: LAL 17 · DEN 8lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 50%, LAL 50% · Updated Mar 14

Expected margin
DEN by 0.8
Expected score
DEN 118.2 – 117.3 LAL
Expected total
235.5
NuggetsThe matchupLakers
+101Our fair odds−101
118.2Expected points117.3
+0.37Power rating+0.20
120.6Points / game116.3
116.5Allowed / game115.1
49.4FG%49.9
39.03P%36.0
43.3Rebounds / game41.0
41−26Season record41−25
5−5Last 107−3
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton WatsonOutMaxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · LAL chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+10150%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10150%————
SpreadDEN by 0.8
DENDenver Nuggets−0.8our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.5
Over235.5our total————
Under235.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 0.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← DEN wins byLAL wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more42%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more28%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.5 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·LAL
Mar 12 at SA
last game
Mar 12 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 14, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementProbable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar back; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 66+ games
DEN·LAL
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
120.6
points / game
116.3
116.5
points allowed / game
115.1
41−26
season record
41−25
18−13
home record
22−12
23−13
away record
19−13
W2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
49.4
FG%
49.9
39.0
3P%
36.0
43.3
rebounds / game
41.0
28.1
assists / game
25.6
13.0
turnovers / game
14.5
48.9
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

DEN · LAL · 130 days
Denver NuggetsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 4−6
Mar 5at DENDEN 120 − 113
Jan 20at DENLAL 115 − 107
Mar 19, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 108
Mar 14, 2025at DENDEN 131 − 126
Feb 22, 2025at DENLAL 123 − 100
Nov 23, 2024at LALDEN 127 − 102
Apr 29, 2024at DENDEN 108 − 106post
Apr 27, 2024at LALLAL 119 − 108post
Apr 25, 2024at LALDEN 112 − 105post
Apr 22, 2024at DENDEN 101 − 99post

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W
Mar 11vs HOU129 − 93W
Mar 9at OKC126 − 129L
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W
Mar 1vs SAC128 − 104W
Feb 28at GS129 − 101W
Feb 26at PHX110 − 113L
Feb 24vs ORL109 − 110L