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Nuggets at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Mar 9 · 6:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final DEN 126 – OKC 129
← NBA / Mar 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN40203333126
OKC37293033129
Team box
DEN·OKC
45-98
field goals
47-93
15-37
3-pointers
19-47
21-29
free throws
16-21
56
rebounds
37
29
assists
27
8
turnovers
3
54
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC3935915
Nikola JokicDEN40321413
Jaylin WilliamsOKC4029123
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN332822
Ajay MitchellOKC292423
Aaron GordonDEN2823103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +13
DEN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 12 · DEN 13lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 29%, OKC 71% · Updated Mar 9

Expected margin
OKC by 7.5
Expected score
OKC 119.5 – 112.0 DEN
Expected total
231.4
NuggetsThe matchupThunder
+246Our fair odds−246
112.0Expected points119.5
+0.40Power rating+1.14
120.2Points / game118.6
116.5Allowed / game107.6
49.4FG%48.2
38.93P%36.1
43.0Rebounds / game43.9
39−25Season record50−15
5−5Last 108−2
Curtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
KJ Simpson · Peyton WatsonOutAlex Caruso · Branden Carlson
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · OKC chance
Our model fair28.9%71.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+24629%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−24671%————
SpreadOKC by 7.5
DENDenver Nuggets+7.5our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−7.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.4
Over231.4our total————
Under231.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 7.5 expected
Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%
← DEN wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more60%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more45%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.4 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·OKC
Mar 6 vs NY
last game
Mar 7 vs GS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 9, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · left hip; contusionOut
OKCBranden Carlson · low back; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left calf; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCChet Holmgren · n/a; fluQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 64+ games
DEN·OKC
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+1.14
120.2
points / game
118.6
116.5
points allowed / game
107.6
39−25
season record
50−15
17−13
home record
26−7
22−12
away record
24−8
L1
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
8−2
49.4
FG%
48.2
38.9
3P%
36.1
43.0
rebounds / game
43.9
28.0
assists / game
25.5
13.1
turnovers / game
12.7
48.6
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

DEN · OKC · 125 days
Denver NuggetsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 6−4
Feb 27at OKCOKC 127 − 121
Feb 1at DENOKC 121 − 111
May 18, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 93post
May 15, 2025at DENDEN 119 − 107post
May 13, 2025at OKCOKC 112 − 105post
May 11, 2025at DENOKC 92 − 87post
May 9, 2025at DENDEN 113 − 104post
May 7, 2025at OKCOKC 149 − 106post
May 5, 2025at OKCDEN 121 − 119post
Mar 10, 2025at OKCDEN 140 − 127

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 6vs NY103 − 142L
Mar 5vs LAL120 − 113W
Mar 2at UTAH128 − 125W
Mar 1vs MIN108 − 117L
Feb 27at OKC121 − 127L
Feb 25vs BOS103 − 84W
Feb 22at GS117 − 128L
Feb 20at POR157 − 103W
Feb 19at LAC114 − 115L
Feb 11vs MEM122 − 116W

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W
Mar 3at CHI116 − 108W
Mar 1at DAL100 − 87W
Feb 27vs DEN127 − 121W
Feb 25at DET116 − 124L
Feb 24at TOR116 − 107W
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L