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Thunder at Raptors

NBA · Tuesday, Feb 24 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final OKC 116 – TOR 107
← NBA / Feb 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC25353818116
TOR32192927107
Team box
OKC·TOR
45-95
field goals
41-88
16-40
3-pointers
18-38
10-12
free throws
7-12
49
rebounds
34
26
assists
30
19
turnovers
16
56
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cason WallaceOKC352787
Isaiah JoeOKC332223
RJ BarrettTOR342184
Immanuel QuickleyTOR331734
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR231741
Alex CarusoOKC231624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +25
OKC +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 10 · OKC 25lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 72%, TOR 28% · Updated Feb 24

Expected margin
OKC by 9.3
Expected score
OKC 116.6 – 107.3 TOR
Expected total
223.9
ThunderThe matchupRaptors
−258Our fair odds+258
116.6Expected points107.3
+1.15Power rating+0.01
119.5Points / game113.9
107.7Allowed / game111.7
48.7FG%47.2
36.53P%34.4
43.7Rebounds / game43.1
44−14Season record34−23
6−4Last 106−4
Ajay Mitchell · Jalen Williams
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Thomas SorberOutA.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob Poeltl
Jonathan Mogbo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · TOR chance
Our model fair72.0%28.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−25872%————
TORToronto Raptors+25828%————
SpreadOKC by 9.3
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.3our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.9
Over223.9our total————
Under223.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.3 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byTOR wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

223.9 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.531%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·TOR
Feb 22 vs CLE
last game
Feb 22 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 24, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAlex Caruso · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsQuestionable
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower - strain - injury managementOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
OKC·TOR
+1.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
119.5
points / game
113.9
107.7
points allowed / game
111.7
44−14
season record
34−23
24−7
home record
16−13
20−7
away record
18−10
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
48.7
FG%
47.2
36.5
3P%
34.4
43.7
rebounds / game
43.1
25.6
assists / game
29.3
12.6
turnovers / game
13.9
50.2
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

OKC · TOR · 112 days
Oklahoma City ThunderToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TOR 3−6
Jan 25at OKCTOR 103 − 101
Feb 7, 2025at OKCOKC 121 − 109
Dec 5, 2024at TOROKC 129 − 92
Mar 22, 2024at TOROKC 123 − 103
Feb 4, 2024at OKCOKC 135 − 127
Mar 16, 2023at TORTOR 128 − 111
Nov 11, 2022at OKCOKC 132 − 113
Feb 9, 2022at OKCTOR 117 − 98
Dec 8, 2021at TOROKC 110 − 109

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 22vs CLE121 − 113W
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Feb 22at MIL122 − 94W
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L
Jan 28vs NY92 − 119L
Jan 25at OKC103 − 101W