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Raptors at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 2:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final TOR 122 – MIL 94
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR22383230122
MIL2724222194
Team box
TOR·MIL
44-94
field goals
35-85
16-46
3-pointers
9-32
18-23
free throws
15-19
45
rebounds
46
34
assists
18
8
turnovers
19
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Immanuel QuickleyTOR313239
Brandon IngramTOR312226
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL3121210
Ryan RollinsMIL332191
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR231544
Cam ThomasMIL211531

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +31
TOR +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 8 · TOR 31lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 47%, MIL 53% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 112.6 – 111.2 TOR
Expected total
223.8
RaptorsThe matchupBucks
+112Our fair odds−112
111.2Expected points112.6
−0.04Power rating−0.12
113.7Points / game112.3
112.1Allowed / game115.2
47.2FG%48.3
34.33P%39.3
43.0Rebounds / game41.1
33−23Season record24−30
6−4Last 106−4
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan Mogbo
Scottie BarnesOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIL chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+11247%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−11253%————
SpreadMIL by 1.3
TORToronto Raptors+1.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.8
Over223.8our total————
Under223.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 1.3 expected
Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more44%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more30%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIL
Feb 19 at CHI
last game
Feb 20 at NO
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 21, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORScottie Barnes · personal reasonsOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; strainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
TOR·MIL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
113.7
points / game
112.3
112.1
points allowed / game
115.2
33−23
season record
24−30
16−13
home record
12−12
17−10
away record
12−18
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.2
FG%
48.3
34.3
3P%
39.3
43.0
rebounds / game
41.1
29.2
assists / game
26.1
14.0
turnovers / game
14.5
52.0
points in paint / game
44.6

Rating Trend

TOR · MIL · 110 days
Toronto RaptorsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Dec 18, 2025at MILTOR 111 − 105
Nov 4, 2025at TORTOR 128 − 100
Oct 24, 2025at TORMIL 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 112
Jan 6, 2025at TORMIL 128 − 104
Nov 12, 2024at MILMIL 99 − 85
Apr 5, 2024at MILTOR 117 − 111
Nov 15, 2023at TORMIL 128 − 112
Nov 1, 2023at TORTOR 130 − 111
Apr 9, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 105

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 19at CHI110 − 101W
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L
Jan 28vs NY92 − 119L
Jan 25at OKC103 − 101W
Jan 23at POR110 − 98W

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Feb 20at NO139 − 118W
Feb 12at OKC110 − 93W
Feb 11at ORL116 − 108W
Feb 9at ORL99 − 118L
Feb 6vs IND105 − 99W
Feb 4vs NO141 − 137W
Feb 3vs CHI131 − 115W
Feb 1at BOS79 − 107L
Jan 29at WSH99 − 109L
Jan 27at PHI122 − 139L