bayesRatings

Raptors at Bulls

NBA · Thursday, Feb 19 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final TOR 110 – CHI 101
← NBA / Feb 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR25283423110
CHI23223323101
Team box
TOR·CHI
38-90
field goals
36-86
7-23
3-pointers
12-40
27-31
free throws
17-21
46
rebounds
46
23
assists
22
14
turnovers
23
50
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR363186
Anfernee SimonsCHI312011
Isaac OkoroCHI301651
Scottie BarnesTOR341495
Immanuel QuickleyTOR331423
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR221440

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +14
TOR +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 3 · TOR 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 51%, CHI 49% · Updated Feb 19

Expected margin
TOR by 0.6
Expected score
TOR 117.0 – 116.5 CHI
Expected total
233.5
RaptorsThe matchupBulls
−103Our fair odds+103
117.0Expected points116.5
−0.04Power rating−0.27
113.8Points / game116.8
112.3Allowed / game120.6
47.3FG%47.1
34.43P%36.6
43.0Rebounds / game44.7
32−23Season record24−31
6−4Last 101−9
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky HepburnOutMac McClung · Noa Essengue
Yuki Kawamura · Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHI chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−10351%————
CHIChicago Bulls+10349%————
SpreadTOR by 0.6
TORToronto Raptors−0.6our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.5
Over233.5our total————
Under233.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 0.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%
← TOR wins byCHI wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more41%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more28%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.5 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted
Chicago Bulls
GAnfernee Simonsstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHI
Feb 11 vs DET
last game
Feb 11 at BOS
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 19, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORSandro Mamukelashvili · right rib; contusionQuestionable
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainProbable
Chicago Bulls
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainProbable
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; strainProbable
CHITre Jones · left hamstring; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 55+ games
TOR·CHI
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.27
113.8
points / game
116.8
112.3
points allowed / game
120.6
32−23
season record
24−31
16−13
home record
15−12
16−10
away record
9−19
L1
streak
L6
6−4
last 10
1−9
47.3
FG%
47.1
34.4
3P%
36.6
43.0
rebounds / game
44.7
29.3
assists / game
29.2
14.0
turnovers / game
14.3
52.1
points in paint / game
52.4

Rating Trend

TOR · CHI · 107 days
Toronto RaptorsChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 6−4
Feb 5at TORTOR 123 − 107
Apr 1, 2025at CHICHI 137 − 118
Feb 28, 2025at CHICHI 125 − 115
Jan 31, 2025at TORCHI 122 − 106
Dec 16, 2024at TORCHI 122 − 121
Jan 30, 2024at CHITOR 118 − 107
Jan 18, 2024at TORCHI 116 − 110
Nov 24, 2023at TORTOR 121 − 108
Oct 27, 2023at CHICHI 104 − 103
Feb 28, 2023at TORTOR 104 − 98

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Feb 11vs DET95 − 113L
Feb 8vs IND122 − 104W
Feb 5vs CHI123 − 107W
Feb 4vs MIN126 − 128L
Feb 1vs UTAH107 − 100W
Jan 30at ORL120 − 130L
Jan 28vs NY92 − 119L
Jan 25at OKC103 − 101W
Jan 23at POR110 − 98W
Jan 21at SAC122 − 109W

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Feb 11at BOS105 − 124L
Feb 9at BKN115 − 123L
Feb 7vs DEN120 − 136L
Feb 5at TOR107 − 123L
Feb 3at MIL115 − 131L
Feb 1at MIA91 − 134L
Jan 31at MIA125 − 118W
Jan 29vs MIA113 − 116L
Jan 28at IND110 − 113L
Jan 26vs LAL118 − 129L