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Cavaliers at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Feb 22 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final CLE 113 – OKC 121
← NBA / Feb 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE25303127113
OKC40242532121
Team box
CLE·OKC
43-89
field goals
42-86
13-39
3-pointers
21-41
14-19
free throws
16-25
44
rebounds
44
28
assists
32
17
turnovers
16
56
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Isaiah JoeOKC302223
James HardenCLE342059
Cason WallaceOKC3420410
Donovan MitchellCLE352075
Sam MerrillCLE292030
Chet HolmgrenOKC3417154

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +23
CLE +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 23 · CLE 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 32%, OKC 68% · Updated Feb 22

Expected margin
OKC by 5.9
Expected score
OKC 118.5 – 112.6 CLE
Expected total
231.1
CavaliersThe matchupThunder
+211Our fair odds−211
112.6Expected points118.5
+0.57Power rating+1.13
119.8Points / game119.4
115.3Allowed / game107.6
47.9FG%48.7
36.23P%36.2
44.7Rebounds / game43.7
36−21Season record43−14
9−1Last 106−4
Max Strus · Riley Minix
Tristan EnarunaOutAjay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Jalen Williams · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · OKC chance
Our model fair32.1%67.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers+21132%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−21168%————
SpreadOKC by 5.9
CLECleveland Cavaliers+5.9our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.1
Over231.1our total————
Under231.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 5.9 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more56%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more41%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.1 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GIsaiah Joestarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·OKC
Feb 20 at CHA
last game
Feb 20 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 22, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLERiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strain/ left ankle sprainOut
OKCAlex Caruso · left ankle; sprainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; strainOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 57+ games
CLE·OKC
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
+1.13
119.8
points / game
119.4
115.3
points allowed / game
107.6
36−21
season record
43−14
19−11
home record
23−7
17−10
away record
20−7
W7
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
47.9
FG%
48.7
36.2
3P%
36.2
44.7
rebounds / game
43.7
28.5
assists / game
25.4
14.4
turnovers / game
12.6
51.3
points in paint / game
50.4

Rating Trend

CLE · OKC · 110 days
Cleveland CavaliersOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OKC 5−4
Jan 19at CLEOKC 136 − 104
Jan 16, 2025at OKCOKC 134 − 114
Jan 8, 2025at CLECLE 129 − 122
Nov 8, 2023at OKCOKC 128 − 120
Oct 27, 2023at CLEOKC 108 − 105
Jan 27, 2023at OKCOKC 112 − 100
Dec 10, 2022at CLECLE 110 − 102
Jan 22, 2022at CLECLE 94 − 87
Jan 15, 2022at OKCCLE 107 − 102

CLE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Feb 20at CHA118 − 113W
Feb 19vs BKN112 − 84W
Feb 11vs WSH138 − 113W
Feb 9at DEN119 − 117W
Feb 7at SAC132 − 126W
Feb 4at LAC124 − 91W
Feb 1at POR130 − 111W
Jan 30at PHX113 − 126L
Jan 28vs LAL129 − 99W
Jan 26vs ORL114 − 98W

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Feb 20vs BKN105 − 86W
Feb 12vs MIL93 − 110L
Feb 11at PHX136 − 109W
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W