bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Hornets

NBA · Friday, Feb 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final CLE 118 – CHA 113
← NBA / Feb 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE30293128118
CHA20333624113
Team box
CLE·CHA
41-77
field goals
36-92
10-21
3-pointers
20-56
26-28
free throws
21-22
39
rebounds
45
24
assists
26
12
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kon KnueppelCHA373362
Donovan MitchellCLE343234
Jarrett AllenCLE3226142
James HardenCLE341848
LaMelo BallCHA271826
Brandon MillerCHA231824

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +14
CLE +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 4 · CLE 14lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 65%, CHA 35% · Updated Feb 20

Expected margin
CLE by 5.8
Expected score
CLE 118.4 – 112.6 CHA
Expected total
231.0
CavaliersThe matchupHornets
−184Our fair odds+184
118.4Expected points112.6
+0.57Power rating−0.24
119.8Points / game115.4
115.3Allowed / game113.6
47.8FG%46.0
36.03P%37.3
44.8Rebounds / game46.0
35−21Season record26−30
9−1Last 108−2
Evan Mobley · Max Strus
Riley MinixOutCoby White · Grant Williams
Liam McNeeley · Miles Bridges
Moussa Diabate

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHA chance
Our model fair64.8%35.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−18465%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+18435%————
SpreadCLE by 5.8
CLECleveland Cavaliers−5.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+5.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.0
Over231.0our total————
Under231.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 5.8 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%
← CLE wins byCHA wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more56%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more40%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.0 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHA
Feb 19 vs BKN
last game
Feb 19 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 20, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; injury managementOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLERiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
CLENae'Qwan Tomlin · left calf; sorenessProbable
Charlotte Hornets
CHACoby White · left calf; strainOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · left ankle; sprainOut
CHAMiles Bridges · league suspensionOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · league suspensionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 56+ games
CLE·CHA
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
119.8
points / game
115.4
115.3
points allowed / game
113.6
35−21
season record
26−30
19−11
home record
12−15
16−10
away record
14−15
W6
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
8−2
47.8
FG%
46.0
36.0
3P%
37.3
44.8
rebounds / game
46.0
28.6
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
15.9
51.3
points in paint / game
46.9

Rating Trend

CLE · CHA · 108 days
Cleveland CavaliersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 3−7
Jan 21at CHACLE 94 − 87
Dec 22, 2025at CLECLE 139 − 132
Dec 14, 2025at CLECHA 119 − 111
Mar 7, 2025at CHACLE 118 − 117
Jan 5, 2025at CLECLE 115 − 105
Dec 7, 2024at CHACLE 116 − 102
Nov 17, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 114
Apr 14, 2024at CLECHA 120 − 110
Mar 27, 2024at CHACHA 118 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at CLECLE 115 − 92

CLE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Feb 19vs BKN112 − 84W
Feb 11vs WSH138 − 113W
Feb 9at DEN119 − 117W
Feb 7at SAC132 − 126W
Feb 4at LAC124 − 91W
Feb 1at POR130 − 111W
Jan 30at PHX113 − 126L
Jan 28vs LAL129 − 99W
Jan 26vs ORL114 − 98W
Jan 24at ORL119 − 105W

CHA · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Feb 19vs HOU101 − 105L
Feb 11vs ATL110 − 107W
Feb 9vs DET104 − 110L
Feb 7at ATL126 − 119W
Feb 5at HOU109 − 99W
Feb 2vs NO102 − 95W
Jan 31vs SA111 − 106W
Jan 29at DAL123 − 121W
Jan 28at MEM112 − 97W
Jan 26vs PHI130 − 93W